The economic value of frost forecasts is estimated under various assumptions concerning prior information, accuracy of forecasts, and the shape of the orchard operator's utility functions. The frost protection decision process is simulated in the context of Bayesian decision making under uncertainty. The averaged seasonal values estimated per day per acre were $@@‐@@5.39 for frost forecasts provided by the U.S. Weather Service, $@@‐@@8.57 for perfect frost forecasts, $@@‐@@4.73 for profit maximizers, and $@@‐@@191.39 for completely ignorant decision makers. The methodology used has general application to determination of economic value of information under conditions of uncertainty.
Plan (optimum 11-crop plan) Plan 2 (optimum 21-crop plan) Medium capital level High capital level Plan 3 (intensification plan-a future possibility) Medium capital level High capital level Unlimited capital level Plan 4 (a labor intensive plan) Plan 5 (a labor extensive plan) Income Comparisons Summary of Effects With changes in farm size and level of mechanization 211 With changes in technology 216 With changes in cropping plans 220 With changes in level of production capital use
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