The “current icing potential” (CIP) algorithm combines satellite, radar, surface, lightning, and pilot-report observations with model output to create a detailed three-dimensional hourly diagnosis of the potential for the existence of icing and supercooled large droplets. It uses a physically based situational approach that is derived from basic and applied cloud physics, combined with forecaster and onboard flight experience from field programs. Both fuzzy logic and decision-tree logic are applied in this context. CIP determines the locations of clouds and precipitation and then estimates the potential for the presence of supercooled liquid water and supercooled large droplets within a given airspace. First developed in the winter of 1997/98, CIP became an operational National Weather Service and Federal Aviation Administration product in 2002, providing real-time diagnoses that allow users to make route-specific decisions to avoid potentially hazardous icing. The CIP algorithm, its individual components, and the logic behind them are described.

[1] Highly supercooled rain and drizzle from cloud tops at À12 to À21 C down to the 0 isotherm was documented by aircraft observations in clouds over a wide range of meteorological situations under relatively pristine marine aerosol conditions. The Gulfstream-1 aircraft during the CalWater campaign in February and early March 2011 measured clouds over the coastal waters of northern California, orographically triggered convective clouds over the foothills of the Sierra Nevada, and orographic layer clouds over Yosemite National Park. Supercooled drizzle in layer clouds near Juneau, Alaska, was measured by the Wyoming King Air as part of a FAA project to study aircraft icing in this region. Low concentrations of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) were commonly observed in all of these clouds, allowing for the formation of clouds with small concentrations of mostly large drops that coalesced into supercooled drizzle and raindrops. Another common observation was the absence of ice nuclei (IN) and/or ice crystals in measurable concentrations, associated with persistent supercooled drizzle and rain. Average ice crystal concentrations were 0.007 l À1 at the top of convective clouds at À12 C and 0.03 l À1 in the case of layer clouds at À21 C. In combination, these two conditions of low concentrations of CCN and very few IN provide ideal conditions for the formation of highly supercooled drizzle and rain. These results help explain the anomalously high incidences of aircraft icing at cold temperatures in U.S. west coast clouds and highlight the need to include aerosol effects when simulating aircraft icing with cloud models.

Because of a lack of regular, direct measurements, little information is available about the frequency and spatial and temporal distribution of icing conditions aloft, including supercooled large drops (SLD). Research aircraft provide in situ observations of these conditions, but the sample set is small and can be biased. Other techniques must be used to create a more unbiased climatology. The presence and absence of icing and SLD aloft can be inferred using surface weather observations in conjunction with vertical profiles of temperature and moisture. In this study, such a climatology was created using 14 yr of coincident, 12-hourly Canadian and continental U.S. surface weather reports and balloonborne soundings. The conditions were found to be most common along the Pacific Coast from Alaska to Oregon, and in a large swath from the Canadian Maritimes to the Midwest. Prime locations migrated seasonally. Most SLD events appeared to occur below 4 km, were less than 1 km deep, and were formed via the collision-coalescence process.

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