ObjectivesTo determine the validity of the Manchester Triage System (MTS) in emergency care for the general population of patients attending the emergency department, for children and elderly, and for commonly used MTS flowcharts and discriminators across three different emergency care settings.MethodsThis was a prospective observational study in three European emergency departments. All consecutive patients attending the emergency department during a 1-year study period (2010–2012) were included. Validity of the MTS was assessed by comparing MTS urgency as determined by triage nurses with patient urgency according to a predefined 3-category reference standard as proxy for true patient urgency.Results288,663 patients were included in the analysis. Sensitivity of the MTS in the three hospitals ranged from 0.47 (95%CI 0.44–0.49) to 0.87 (95%CI 0.85–0.90), and specificity from 0.84 (95%CI 0.84–0.84) to 0.94 (95%CI 0.94–0.94) for the triage of adult patients. In children, sensitivity ranged from 0.65 (95%CI 0.61–0.70) to 0.83 (95%CI 0.79–0.87), and specificity from 0.83 (95%CI 0.82–0.83) to 0.89 (95%CI 0.88–0.90). The diagnostic odds ratio ranged from 13.5 (95%CI 12.1–15.0) to 35.3 (95%CI 28.4–43.9) in adults and from 9.8 (95%CI 6.7–14.5) to 23.8 (95%CI 17.7–32.0) in children, and was lowest in the youngest patients in 2 out of 3 settings and in the oldest patients in all settings. Performance varied considerably between the different emergency departments.ConclusionsValidity of the MTS in emergency care is moderate to good, with lowest performance in the young and elderly patients. Future studies on the validity of triage systems should be restricted to large, multicenter studies to define modifications and improve generalizability of the findings.

Background Optimising the use of antibiotics is a key component of antibiotic stewardship. Respiratory tract infections (RTIs) are the most common reason for antibiotic prescription in children, even though most of these infections in children under 5 years are viral. This study aims to safely reduce antibiotic prescriptions in children under 5 years with suspected lower RTI at the emergency department (ED), by implementing a clinical decision rule. Methods and findings In a stepped-wedge cluster randomised trial, we included children aged 1-60 months presenting with fever and cough or dyspnoea to 8 EDs in The Netherlands. The EDs were of varying sizes, from diverse geographic and demographic regions, and of different hospital types (tertiary versus general). In the pre-intervention phase, children received usual care, according to the Dutch and NICE guidelines for febrile children. During the intervention phase, a validated clinical prediction model (Feverkidstool) including clinical characteristics and C-reactive protein (CRP) was implemented as a decision rule guiding antibiotic prescription. The intervention was that antibiotics were withheld in children with a low or intermediate predicted risk of bacterial pneumonia (�10%, based on Feverkidstool). Co-primary outcomes were antibiotic prescription rate and strategy failure. Strategy failure was defined

CRP and PCT were both strong predictors of SBI. The original and updated Lab-score performed well, but thresholds values lacked diagnostic value for ruling out SBI. Depending on clinical risk thresholds, diagnostic testing can be limited to CRP or PCT, rather than both, in many febrile children.

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Background: The limited diagnostic accuracy of biomarkers in children at risk of a serious bacterial infection (SBI) might be due to the imperfect reference standard of SBI. We aimed to evaluate the diagnostic performance of a new classification algorithm for biomarker discovery in children at risk of SBI.Methods: We used data from five previously published, prospective observational biomarker discovery studies, which included patients aged 0– <16 years: the Alder Hey emergency department (n = 1,120), Alder Hey pediatric intensive care unit (n = 355), Erasmus emergency department (n = 1,993), Maasstad emergency department (n = 714) and St. Mary's hospital (n = 200) cohorts. Biomarkers including procalcitonin (PCT) (4 cohorts), neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin-2 (NGAL) (3 cohorts) and resistin (2 cohorts) were compared for their ability to classify patients according to current standards (dichotomous classification of SBI vs. non-SBI), vs. a proposed PERFORM classification algorithm that assign patients to one of eleven categories. These categories were based on clinical phenotype, test outcomes and C-reactive protein level and accounted for the uncertainty of final diagnosis in many febrile children. The success of the biomarkers was measured by the Area under the receiver operating Curves (AUCs) when they were used individually or in combination.Results: Using the new PERFORM classification system, patients with clinically confident bacterial diagnosis (“definite bacterial” category) had significantly higher levels of PCT, NGAL and resistin compared with those with a clinically confident viral diagnosis (“definite viral” category). Patients with diagnostic uncertainty had biomarker concentrations that varied across the spectrum. AUCs were higher for classification of “definite bacterial” vs. “definite viral” following the PERFORM algorithm than using the “SBI” vs. “non-SBI” classification; summary AUC for PCT was 0.77 (95% CI 0.72–0.82) vs. 0.70 (95% CI 0.65–0.75); for NGAL this was 0.80 (95% CI 0.69–0.91) vs. 0.70 (95% CI 0.58–0.81); for resistin this was 0.68 (95% CI 0.61–0.75) vs. 0.64 (0.58–0.69) The three biomarkers combined had summary AUC of 0.83 (0.77–0.89) for “definite bacterial” vs. “definite viral” infections and 0.71 (0.67–0.74) for “SBI” vs. “non-SBI.”Conclusion: Biomarkers of bacterial infection were strongly associated with the diagnostic categories using the PERFORM classification system in five independent cohorts. Our proposed algorithm provides a novel framework for phenotyping children with suspected or confirmed infection for future biomarker studies.