La concentration géographique des industries françaises par Françoise Maurel et Béatrice Sédillot L'objet de cet article est d'apprécier empiriquement la concentration géographique des industries françaises, à partir d'une modélisation des choix de localisation des établissements suggérée par Ellison-Glaeser ( 1994). L' indicateur de concentration géographique utilisé mesure la corrélation entre les décisions d'implantation de deux établissements d'un même secteur et permet ainsi de cerner les externalités de localisation propres à une industrie. À côté des industries extractives et traditionnelles, certaines industries de haute technologie apparaissent fortement localisées. Par ailleurs, pour certaines industries, les avantages de l'agglomération dépassent les frontières du département et se mesurent à l'échelon de la région.
Based on data from the literature, we have developed a computer-based simulation model to compare the long-term effectiveness of different preventive strategies of osteoporotic fractures. The Markov model comprises 25 states, including states which describe women distributed according to three levels of fracture risk, fractures states, post-fracture states and a death state. We chose eight standard preventive strategies, which we compare with the 'No Treatment' reference strategy. The first two strategies consist in treating all 50-year-old women for 5 or 10 years with hormone replacement therapy (HRT). Strategies 3 and 4 aim at assessing a 5-year course of treatment with bisphosphonates in osteopenic and osteoporotic 65- or 75-year-old women. Strategies 5 and 6 combine 5 years of HRT in all 50-year-old women with 5 years of bisphosphonates in osteopenic and osteoporotic women at 65 or 75 years. The last two strategies simulate 10 years of HRT in all 50-year-old women, followed by strategy 3 or strategy 4. Simulated life expectancy and mean ages of fracture occurrence fit well with the observed data. All the preventive strategies tested reduced the number of fractures. Early 10-year HRT in all women, plus 5 years of bisphosphonates in women at risk of fractures at 65 or 75 years, are the most effective strategies, with an 18.4-19.0% reduction in all fractures, and a 25.6-26.1% reduction in the number of hip fractures. Strategy 2 has a similar outcome, thus demonstrating the value of treatment started early and sustained over a long period. The strategies implemented later, S3 and S4, only concern women at risk (i.e., osteopenic or osteoporotic), and are less effective, with a 1.5-2.1% decrease in all fractures. The combined strategies, S5 and S6, produce intermediate results: a 12.9-13.5% reduction in the number of all fractures and a 17.5-17.9% reduction in hip fractures.
Consumption - Permanent Income: An Econometrician's Standpoint, by Laurence Bloch, Françoise Maurel. The purpose of this paper is to show how the development of new econometric techniques has resulted in new approaches and solutions in consumer theory. The theoretical context of the permanent income model under rational expectations (Hall, 1978) is first determined. The major statistical properties of the French series are given which are helpful in constructing a consumption model. Anumber of empirical tests are run on the permanent income model under rational expectations (Hall, 1978, Flavin, 1981). Using French data, we come to the same paradoxical conclusion as Deaton did, according to whom consumption is too "smooth" to be compatible with the permanent income theory. A number of extensions of the model are then developed and empirical tests on the permanent income model under rational expectations hypothesis are run.
[fre] Les comportements d'emploi ont subi une inflexion marquée au cours des années quatre-vingt. D'une part, le rythme de croissance de la productivité tendancielle des entreprises s'est réduit. D'autre part, l'emploi est devenu plus flexible en s'ajustant plus rapidement aux inflexions de la croissance. Au total, la croissance est désormais moins productive et son contenu en emploi est plus élevé. Tels sont les principaux enseignements délivrés par l'estimation recursive d'une équation simple décrivant les . portements d'emploi des vingt dernières années. . Ce changement ne s'explique ni par l'évolution des coûts relatifs du capital et du travail, ni par la baisse de la durée du travail ou par une accumulation ralentie de capital. Elle traduit plutôt un effet de structure : le poids croissant du secteur tertiaire, dont la productivité est structurellement plus faible, imprime à l'économie toute entière son propre comportement d'emploi. [eng] The Dynamics of Employment and Productivity Trends in the Eighties. An Econometric Interpretation - Behaviour patterns in employment went through a noticeable change in the eighties. On the one hand, the growth of firms productivity trends slowed down. On the other hand, employment became more flexible and was faster to adjust to the changing growth trend. On the whole, growth has now become less productive and employment has increased. Such are the main conclusions drawn from the recursive evaluation of a simple equation describing the behaviour patterns of employment over the last twenty years. . This change can be accounted for neither by changing trends in the relative costs of labour and capital, nor by the drop in the number of working hours or by a slower accumulation of capital. However, it is easier to explain this as a result of a structural effect: the increasing weight of the tertiary sector, whose procutivity is structurally lower, forced the whole economy to adopt its own behaviour pattern of employment. [spa] Dinámica del empleo y tendencia de la productividad en los anos ochenta . Una interpretación econométrica - Los comportamientos de empleo sufrieron una marcada inflexion en la decada de los ochenta. Por otra parte, el ritmo de crecimiento de la tendencia de productividad de las empresas se redujo. Además, el empleo se hizo más flexible ajustándose más rapidamente a las inflexiones del crecimiento. En resumen, el crecimiento es de ahora en adelante menos productivo y su contenido vinculado con el empleo es más elevado. Tales son las principales observaciones que se pueden extraer de la estimación recursiva de una ecuación simple que describe los . mientos del empleo en los últimos veinte años. . Este cambio no se explica ni por la evolución de los costos relativos ni por la baja de la duración del trabajo o por una acumulacion aminorada de capital. Traduce más bien un efecto de estructura: el peso creciente del sector terciario, cuya producción es estructuralmente más débil, imprime a toda la economia su propio comportamiento de empleo.
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