The Lagrange formalism was implemented to derive the equations of motion for the physics-based united-residue (UNRES) force field developed in our laboratory. The C α… C α and C α… SC (SC denoting a side-chain center) virtual-bond vectors were chosen as variables. The velocity Verlet algorithm was adopted to integrate the equations of motion. Tests on the unblocked Ala 10 polypeptide showed that the algorithm is stable in short periods of time up to the time step of 1.467 fs; however, even with the shorter time step of 0.489 fs, some drift of the total energy occurs because of momentary jumps of the acceleration. These jumps are caused by numerical instability of the forces arising from the U rot component of UNRES that describes the energetics of side-chain-rotameric states. Test runs on the Gly 10 sequence (in which U rot is not present) and on the Ala 10 sequence with U rot replaced by a simple numerically stable harmonic potential confirmed this observation; oscillations of the total energy were observed only up to the time step of 7.335 fs, and some drift in the total energy or instability of the trajectories started to appear in long-time (2 ns and longer) trajectories only for the time step of 9.78 fs. These results demonstrate that the present U rot components (which are statistical potentials derived from the Protein Data Bank) must be replaced with more numerically stable functions; this work is under way in our laboratory. For the purpose of our present work, a nonsymplectic variable-time-step algorithm was introduced to reduce the energy drift for regular polypeptide sequences. The algorithm scales down the time step at a given point of a trajectory if the maximum change of acceleration exceeds a selected cutoff value. With this algorithm, the total energy is reasonably conserved up to a time step of 2.445 fs, as tested on the unblocked Ala 10 polypeptide. We also tried a symplectic multiple-time-step reversible RESPA algorithm and achieved satisfactory energy conservation for time steps up to 7.335 fs. However, at present, it appears that the reversible RESPA algorithm is several times more expensive than the variable-time-step algorithm because of the necessity to perform additional matrix multiplications. We also observed that, because Ala 10 folds and unfolds within picoseconds in the microcanonical mode, this suggests that the effective (event-based) time unit in UNRES dynamics is much larger than that of all-atom dynamics because of averaging over the fast-moving degrees of freedom in deriving the UNRES potential.

Caenorhabditis elegans is the only animal for which a detailed neural connectivity diagram has been constructed. However, synaptic polarities in this diagram, and thus, circuit functions are largely unknown. Here, we deciphered the likely polarities of seven pre-motor neurons implicated in the control of worm's locomotion, using a combination of experimental and computational tools. We performed single and multiple laser ablations in the locomotor interneuron circuit and recorded times the worms spent in forward and backward locomotion. We constructed a theoretical model of the locomotor circuit and searched its all possible synaptic polarity combinations and sensory input patterns in order to find the best match to the timing data. The optimal solution is when either all or most of the interneurons are inhibitory and forward interneurons receive the strongest input, which suggests that inhibition governs the dynamics of the locomotor interneuron circuit. From the five pre-motor interneurons, only AVB and AVD are equally likely to be excitatory, i.e., they have probably similar number of inhibitory and excitatory connections to distant targets. The method used here has a general character and thus can be also applied to other neural systems consisting of small functional networks.

Disease modelling has had considerable policy impact during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, and it is increasingly acknowledged that combining multiple models can improve the reliability of outputs. Here we report insights from ten weeks of collaborative short-term forecasting of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland (12 October–19 December 2020). The study period covers the onset of the second wave in both countries, with tightening non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and subsequently a decay (Poland) or plateau and renewed increase (Germany) in reported cases. Thirteen independent teams provided probabilistic real-time forecasts of COVID-19 cases and deaths. These were reported for lead times of one to four weeks, with evaluation focused on one- and two-week horizons, which are less affected by changing NPIs. Heterogeneity between forecasts was considerable both in terms of point predictions and forecast spread. Ensemble forecasts showed good relative performance, in particular in terms of coverage, but did not clearly dominate single-model predictions. The study was preregistered and will be followed up in future phases of the pandemic.

A symplectic multiple-time-step (MTS) algorithm has been developed for the united-residue (UNRES) force field. In this algorithm, the slow-varying forces (which contain most of the long-range interactions and are, therefore, expensive to compute) are integrated with a larger time step, termed the basic time step, and the fast-varying forces are integrated with a shorter time step, which is an integral fraction of the basic time step. Based on the split operator formalism, the equations of motion were derived. Separation of the fast- and slow-varying forces leads to stable molecular dynamics with longer time steps. The algorithms were tested with the Ala(10) polypeptide chain and two versions of the UNRES force field: the current one in which the energy components accounting for the energetics of side-chain rotamers (U(rot)) can lead to numerically unstable forces and a modified one in which the the present U(rot) was replaced by a numerically stable expression which, at present, is parametrized only for polyalanine chains. With the modified UNRES potential, stable trajectories were obtained even when extending the basic time step to 15 fs and, with the original UNRES potentials, the basic time step is 1 fs. An adaptive multiple-time-step (A-MTS) algorithm is proposed to handle instabilities in the forces; in this method, the number of substeps in the basic time step varies depending on the change of the magnitude of the acceleration. With this algorithm, the basic time step is 1 fs but the number of substeps and, consequently, the computational cost are reduced with respect to the MTS algorithm. The use of the UNRES mesoscopic energy function and the algorithms derived in this work enables one to increase the simulation time period by several orders of magnitude compared to conventional atomic-resolution molecular dynamics approaches and, consequently, such an approach appears applicable to simulating protein-folding pathways, protein functional dynamics in a real molecular environment, and dynamical molecular recognition processes.

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We report insights from ten weeks of collaborative COVID-19 forecasting for Germany and Poland (12 October – 19 December 2020). The study period covers the onset of the second wave in both countries, with tightening non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and subsequently a decay (Poland) or plateau and renewed increase (Germany) in reported cases. Thirteen independent teams provided probabilistic real-time forecasts of COVID-19 cases and deaths. These were reported for lead times of one to four weeks, with evaluation focused on one- and two-week horizons, which are less affected by changing NPIs. Heterogeneity between forecasts was considerable both in terms of point predictions and forecast spread. Ensemble forecasts showed good relative performance, in particular in terms of coverage, but did not clearly dominate single-model predictions. The study was preregistered and will be followed up in future phases of the pandemic.

The detailed knowledge of C. elegans connectome for 3 decades has not contributed dramatically to our understanding of worm’s behavior. One of main reasons for this situation has been the lack of data on the type of synaptic signaling between particular neurons in the worm’s connectome. The aim of this study was to determine synaptic polarities for each connection in a small pre-motor circuit controlling locomotion. Even in this compact network of just 7 neurons the space of all possible patterns of connection types (excitation vs. inhibition) is huge. To deal effectively with this combinatorial problem we devised a novel and relatively fast technique based on genetic algorithms and large-scale parallel computations, which we combined with detailed neurophysiological modeling of interneuron dynamics and compared the theory to the available behavioral data. As a result of these massive computations, we found that the optimal connectivity pattern that matches the best locomotory data is the one in which all interneuron connections are inhibitory, even those terminating on motor neurons. This finding is consistent with recent experimental data on cholinergic signaling in C. elegans, and it suggests that the system controlling locomotion is designed to save metabolic energy. Moreover, this result provides a solid basis for a more realistic modeling of neural control in these worms, and our novel powerful computational technique can in principle be applied (possibly with some modifications) to other small-scale functional circuits in C. elegans.

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