In 2002, in the midst of a serious macroeconomic crisis, Argentina implemented a large social program (the Programa Jefes de Hogar, PJH) that provides cash transfers to unemployed household heads meeting certain criteria. In practice, the difficulty in monitoring the unemployment requirement for informal (unregistered) workers would imply a disincentive for the program participants to search for a formal job. By applying matching techniques we evaluate the empirical relevance of this prediction during the period of strong economic growth that followed the crisis. We find some evidence on the informality bias of the PJH when the value of the cash transfer was relatively high compared to wages in the formal labor market.
, +12024733749 School dropout is a growing concern across Latin America because of its negative social and economic consequences. Identifying who is likely to drop out, and therefore could be targeted for interventions, is a well-studied prediction problem in countries with strong administrative data. In this paper, we use new data in Guatemala and Honduras to estimate some of the first dropout prediction models for lower-middle income countries. These models correctly identify 80% of sixth grade students who will drop out within the next year, performing better than other commonly used targeting approaches and as well as models used in the U.S.
In the nineties Argentina implemented a large education reform (Ley Federal de Educación -LFE) that mainly implied the extension of compulsory education in two additional years. The timing in the implementation substantially varied across provinces, providing a source of identification for unraveling the causal effect of the reform. The estimations from difference-in-difference models suggest that the LFE had a positive impact on years of education and the probability of high school graduation. The impact on labor market outcomes -employment, hours of work and wages-was positive for the non-poor youths, but almost null for the poor.
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