This study investigates the main threats related to environmental degradation that affect Amazonian Indigenous Lands (ILs). Through a cluster analysis, we group ILs according to the set of common environmental threats that occur within and outside their limits. The results show that most of the 383 ILs are affected internally by a combination of different environmental threats, namely: deforestation, forest degradation, fires, mining, croplands, pastures, and roads. However, the ILs affected by multiple and relatively severe threats are mainly located in the arc of deforestation and the Roraima state. The threats related to forest loss (deforestation, forest degradation, and fires) are more intense in the ILs’ buffer zones than within, showing that ILs effectively promote environmental preservation. In the cluster analysis, we identified seven clusters that are characterized by common environmental threats within and around their limits, and, based on these results, we have outlined four environmental policy priorities to be strengthened and applied in Amazonian ILs: protecting ILs’ buffer zones; strengthening surveillance actions, and combating illegal deforestation, forest degradation, and mining activities in ILs; preventing and fighting fires; and removing invaders from all ILs in the Amazon. In this study, we warn that the threats presented make the Indigenous peoples in the Amazon more vulnerable. To guarantee indigenous peoples’ rights, illegal actions in these territories and their surroundings must be contained, and quickly.
The future of land use and cover change in Brazil, particularly due to deforestation and forest restoration processes, is critical for the future of global climate and biodiversity, given the richness of its five biomes. These changes in Brazil depend on the interlink between global factors due to its role as one of the main exporters of commodities globally and the national to local institutional, socioeconomic, and biophysical contexts. Aiming to develop scenarios that consider the balance between global (e.g., GDP growth, population growth, per capita consumption of agricultural products, international trade policies, and climatic conditions) and local factors (e.g., land use, agrarian structure, agricultural suitability, protected areas, distance to roads, and other infrastructure projects), a new set of land-use change scenarios for Brazil were developed that aligned with the global structure Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathway (RCPs) developed by the global change research community. The narratives of the new scenarios align with SSP1/RCP 1.9 (Sustainable development scenario), SSP2/RCP 4.5 (Middle of the road scenario), and SSP3/RCP 7.0 (Strong inequality scenario). The scenarios were developed by combining the LuccME spatially explicit land change allocation modeling framework and the INLAND surface model to incorporate the climatic variables in water deficit. Based on detailed biophysical, socioeconomic, and institutional factors for each biome in Brazil, we have created spatially explicit scenarios until 2050, considering the following classes: forest vegetation, grassland vegetation, planted pasture, agriculture, a mosaic of small land uses, and forestry. The results aim to detail global models regionally. They could be used regionally to support decision-making and enrich the global analysis.
O estudo foi conduzido na bacia hidrográfica do Rio Marapanim, localizada na região Nordeste do estado do Pará e se propôs a realizar a partir de análise das transformações da paisagem por meio de técnicas de sensoriamento remoto e geoprocessamento e modelagem dinâmica a fim de entender os processos atuais e refletir acerca do futuro. Foram construídos modelos dinâmicos através da utilização do arcabouço de modelagem LuccME, desenvolvido pelo Centro de Ciência do Sistema Terrestre (CCST) do Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE) e colaboradores a fim de representar computacionalmente as mudanças de uso da terra e seus fatores determinantes. Foram feitas simulações para o período de 2008-2017. Os resultados revelam que os dados de entrada disponíveis, a dependência espacial entre usos da terra e a complexidade da área de estudo, os modelos gerados mostraram um desempenho aceitável para alocar uma demanda que possibilitasse o ajuste espacial, bem como a validação para o período analisado de todas as variáveis dependentes em um mesmo processo. Recomenda-se que a partir desta pesquisa sejam realizados outros modelos de simulação, com base na geração de cenários por meio de modelagem dinâmica espacial com a integração de planos de gestão territorial e os dados gerados podem auxiliar na formulação de políticas públicas. Factors that influence land use modeling of the Marapanim River watershed, Pará A B S T R A C TThe study was conducted in the Marapanim River basin, located in the Northeast region of the state of Pará. We aimed to analyze the processes that trigger landscape transformations and promote a reflection on scenarios for the basin. For this, we used remote sensing, geoprocessing and dynamic modeling techniques. We constructed dynamic models through the LuccME modeling framework. To computationally represent changes in land use and it determining factors, through simulations for the period 2008-2017. The basin presents a state of advanced forest fragmentation and there are impacts on the water regime considering the current land use and cover classes. The few remnants of forest present in the basin area are being converted to agricultural and forestry activities. In addition to this scenario of plant suppression, forest fragmentation causes habitat fragmentation and biodiversity loss. The generated models, considering the available input data, the spatial dependence between land uses, and the complexity of the study area, showed an acceptable performance to allocate a demand that would enable spatial adjustment, as well as validation for the analyzed period of all dependent variables in the same process. It recommended that from this research. other simulation models be performed based on the generation of scenarios through spatial dynamic modeling with the integration of territorial management plans, and the data generated can help in the formulation of public policies.Keywords: Watershed. Land use. Dynamic modeling.
Climate change and land-use change can alter the role of natural vegetation as a sink or source of atmospheric carbon. In this work, we evaluate the response of water and carbon fluxes and stocks in Brazilian biomes as a proxy for ecosystem services of regional climate regulation under two contrasting future scenarios: a sustainable development scenario, where some deforested areas are restored by vegetation regrowth combined with a low representative concentration pathway, and a pessimistic scenario, where there is still high deforestation rates and strong climate change. We used refined regional scenarios for land-use change in Brazil, together with climate projections of the HADGEM2-ES model for RCPs 2.6 and 8.5 to drive a land surface model and assess possible future impacts in surface fluxes. Our results show that drying climate and shifts of natural vegetation into anthropogenic land use might shift part of upperstory biomass into understory biomass, which can be more vulnerable to dry events. The simulations also show that climate change appears to drive most of the water balance changes compared to land-use change, especially over the Amazon.
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