Climate change is altering phenology and distributions of many species and further changes are projected. Can species physiologically adapt to climate warming? We analyse thermal tolerances of a large number of terrestrial ectotherm (n = 697), endotherm (n = 227) and plant (n = 1816) species worldwide, and show that tolerance to heat is largely conserved across lineages, while tolerance to cold varies between and within species. This pattern, previously documented for ectotherms, is apparent for this group and for endotherms and plants, challenging the longstanding view that physiological tolerances of species change continuously across climatic gradients. An alternative view is proposed in which the thermal component of climatic niches would overlap across species more than expected. We argue that hard physiological boundaries exist that constrain evolution of tolerances of terrestrial organisms to high temperatures. In contrast, evolution of tolerances to cold should be more frequent. One consequence of conservatism of upper thermal tolerances is that estimated niches for cold-adapted species will tend to underestimate their upper thermal limits, thereby potentially inflating assessments of risk from climate change. In contrast, species whose climatic preferences are close to their upper thermal limits will unlikely evolve physiological tolerances to increased heat, thereby being predictably more affected by warming.

Research addressing the effects of global warming on the distribution and persistence of species generally assumes that population variation in thermal tolerance is spatially constant or overridden by interspecific variation. Typically, this rationale is implicit in sourcing one critical thermal maximum (CTmax) population estimate per species to model spatiotemporal cross‐taxa variation in heat tolerance. Theory suggests that such an approach could result in biased or imprecise estimates and forecasts of impact from climate warming, but limited empirical evidence in support of those expectations exists. We experimentally quantify the magnitude of intraspecific variation in CTmax among lizard populations, and the extent to which incorporating such variability can alter estimates of climate impact through a biophysical model. To do so, we measured CTmax from 59 populations of 15 Iberian lizard species (304 individuals). The overall median CTmax across all individuals from all species was 42.8°C and ranged from 40.5 to 48.3°C, with species medians decreasing through xeric, climate‐generalist and mesic taxa. We found strong statistical support for intraspecific differentiation in CTmax by up to a median of 3°C among populations. We show that annual restricted activity (operative temperature > CTmax) over the Iberian distribution of our study species differs by a median of >80 hr per 25‐km2 grid cell based on different population‐level CTmax estimates. This discrepancy leads to predictions of spatial variation in annual restricted activity to change by more than 20 days for six of the study species. Considering that during restriction periods, reptiles should be unable to feed and reproduce, current projections of climate‐change impacts on the fitness of ectotherm fauna could be under‐ or over‐estimated depending on which population is chosen to represent the physiological spectra of the species in question. Mapping heat tolerance over the full geographical ranges of single species is thus critical to address cross‐taxa patterns and drivers of heat tolerance in a biologically comprehensive way.

We explored the possible effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) on interannual sea surface temperature (SST) variations in the Alborán Sea, both separately and combined. The probability of observing mean annual SST values higher than average was related to NAO and AO values of the previous year. The effect of NAO on SST was negative, while that of AO was positive. The pure effects of NAO and AO on SST are obscuring each other, due to the positive correlation between them. When decomposing SST, NAO and AO in seasonal values, we found that variation in mean annual SST and mean winter SST was significantly related to the mean autumn NAO of the previous year, while mean summer SST was related to mean autumn AO of the previous year. The one year delay in the effect of the NAO and AO on the SST could be partially related to the amount of accumulated snow, as we found a significant correlation between the total snow in the North Alborán watershed for a year with the annual average SST of the subsequent year. A positive AO implies a colder atmosphere in the Polar Regions, which could favour occasional cold waves over the Iberian Peninsula which, when coupled with precipitations favoured by a negative NAO, may result in snow precipitation. This snow may be accumulated in the high peaks and melt down in spring-summer of the following year, which consequently increases the runoff of freshwater to the sea, which in turn causes a diminution of sea surface salinity and density, and blocks the local upwelling of colder water, resulting in a higher SST.

While epizootics increasingly affect wildlife, it remains poorly understood how the environment shapes most host-pathogen systems. Here, we employ a three-step framework to study microclimate influence on ectotherm host thermal behaviour, focusing on amphibian chytridiomycosis in fire salamanders (Salamandra salamandra) infected with the fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans (Bsal). Laboratory trials reveal that innate variation in thermal preference, rather than behavioural fever, can inhibit infection and facilitate salamander recovery under humidity-saturated conditions. Yet, a 3-year field study and a mesocosm experiment close to the invasive Bsal range show that microclimate constraints suppress host thermal behaviour favourable to disease control. A final mechanistic model, that estimates range-wide, year-round host body temperature relative to microclimate, suggests that these constraints are rule rather than exception. Our results demonstrate how innate host defences against epizootics may remain constrained in the wild, which predisposes to range-wide disease outbreaks and population declines.

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The widespread observation that heat tolerance is less variable than cold tolerance (‘cold‐tolerance asymmetry’) leads to the prediction that species exposed to temperatures near their thermal maxima should have reduced evolutionary potential for adapting to climate warming. However, the prediction is largely supported by species‐level global studies based on single estimates of both physiological metrics per taxon. We ask whether cold‐tolerance asymmetry holds for Iberian lizards after accounting for intraspecific variation in critical thermal maxima (CTmax) and minima (CTmin). To do so, we quantified CTmax and CTmin for 58 populations of 15 Iberian lizard species (299 individuals). Then, we randomly selected one population from each study species (population sample = 15 CTmax and CTmin values), tested for differences between the variance of both thermal metrics across species, and repeated the test for thousands of population samples as if we had undertaken the same study thousands of times, each time sampling one different population per species (as implemented in global studies). The ratio of variances in CTmax to CTmin across species varied up to 16‐fold depending on the populations chosen. Variance ratios show how much CTmax departs from the cross‐species mean compared to CTmin, with a unitary ratio indicating equal variance of both thermal limits. Sampling one population per species was six times more likely to result in the observation of greater CTmax variance (‘heat‐tolerance asymmetry’) than cold‐tolerance asymmetry. The probability of obtaining the data (given the null hypothesis of equal variance being true) was twice as likely for cases of cold‐tolerance asymmetry than for the opposite scenario. Range‐wide, population‐level studies that quantify heat and cold tolerance of individual species are urgently needed to ascertain the global prevalence of cold‐tolerance asymmetry. While broad latitudinal clines of cold tolerance have been strongly supported, heat tolerance might respond to smaller‐scale climatic and habitat factors hence go unnoticed in global studies. Studies investigating physiological responses to climate change should incorporate the extent to which thermal traits are characteristic of individuals, populations and/or species. A free Plain Language Summary can be found within the Supporting Information of this article.

The Asian kelp Undaria pinnatifida was first reported in north-western Spain in 1988. Since then, it has spread along the Galician coasts and towards the western Cantrabrian coast, probably supported by new introductions related to aquaculture and private yachts. Despite the high potential of this seaweed to invade new areas, it has not fully established itself in specific areas along the eastern Cantabrian coast where it has been farmed. We attempted to identify the macro-environmental determinants for the successful establishment of U. pinnatifida in the northern Iberian coast. Thus, we built a model based on the significant relationships between this kelp and several environmental factors using the Favourability Function, a method based on binary logistic regression. We obtained a statistically significant Favourability model where the chlorophyll concentration in summer was the most influential variable and the photosynthetically active radiation in spring was a secondary variable that best characterized the presence of U. pinnatifida. The ecological implications are discussed.

We present a regional climate simulation for the Iberian Peninsula for a 60-year period (1950-2009) using the WRF-ARW model with a focus on the simulation of summer maximum temperatures and associated extreme heat waves. The WRF model was designed at a 5 km horizontal resolution on a 5-month (May-September) seasonal scale, for every year, during the study period with initial/boundary conditions derived from NCEP 2.5 degree reanalysis. The comparison of simulated mean summer seasonal maximums and mean maximums of June, July, and August months with the corresponding E-OBS data sets indicates that the model is able to characterize the spatial variation of magnitudes of temperature change over the Iberian Peninsula. The mean extreme heat wave conditions during the climate period 1950-2009 are well simulated and match the observations well. The regional scale simulations clearly show the propagation of intense heat waves from the south west to north east of Iberia. The WRF-ARW model also simulated well the general trend of increase in heat waves over most parts of the Iberian Peninsula during the study period 1950-2009. The characteristics of the most severe heat waves years 2003 and 2006 are also well simulated by the model.