Since record linkage errors can bias measures of disease occurrence and association, it is important to assess their accuracy. The aim of this study is to assess the accuracy of a multiple pass probabilistic record linkage strategy to identify deaths among persons reported to the Brazilian AIDS surveillance database. An HIV/AIDS national surveillance database (N = 559,442) was linked to a total of 6,444,822 deaths registered (all causes) in the Brazilian mortality database. To estimate standard measures of accuracy, we selected all AIDS cases with a date of death registered in the surveillance database from 2002 to 2005 (N = 19,750) and 38,675 cases known to be alive in 2006. The linkage strategy presented a sensitivity of 87.6% (95%CI: 87.1-88.2), a specificity of 99.6% (95%CI: 99.6-99.7), and a positive predictive value of 99.2% (95%CI: 99.1-99.3). We observed a small variation in the validity measures according to some putative predictors of mortality. Our findings suggest that even large and heterogeneous databases can be linked with a satisfactory accuracy.

Leishmaniasis is an important health problem in several countries in the Americas and cases notification is limited and underreported. In 2008, the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO/WHO) met with endemic countries to discuss the status and need of improvement of systems region-wide. The objective is to describe the temporal and spatial distribution of cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) cases reported to PAHO/WHO by the endemic countries between 2001 and 2011 in the Americas.MethodsCases reported in the period of 2001–2011 from 14/18 CL endemic countries were included in this study by using two spreadsheet to collect the data. Two indicators were analyzed: CL cases and incidence rate. The local regression method was used to analyze case trends and incidence rates for all the studied period, and for 2011 the spatial distribution of each indicator was analyzed by quartile and stratified into four groups.ResultsFrom 2001–2011, 636,683 CL cases were reported by 14 countries and with an increase of 30% of the reported cases. The average incidence rate in the Americas was 15.89/100,000 inhabitants. In 2011, 15 countries reported cases in 180 from a total of 292 units of first subnational level. The global incidence rate for all countries was 17.42 cases per 100,000 inhabitants; while in 180 administrative units at the first subnational level, the average incidence rate was 57.52/100,000 inhabitants. Nicaragua and Panama had the highest incidence but more cases occurred in Brazil and Colombia. Spatial distribution was heterogeneous for each indicator, and when analyzed in different administrative level. The results showed different distribution patterns, illustrating the limitation of the use of individual indicators and the need to classify higher-risk areas in order to prioritize the actions. This study shows the epidemiological patterns using secondary data and the importance of using multiple indicators to define and characterize smaller territorial units for surveillance and control of leishmaniasis.

This study evaluated differences in AIDS patients with and without tuberculosis (TB) in Espírito Santo State, Brazil. Standard regional AIDS (SINAN, SISCEL, SICLOM and SIM) and tuberculosis (SINAN) databases were used. TB and AIDS databases were linked using Reclink software, version 3, with SPSS software support to identify co-infected cases. Data from July 2000 to June 2006 in Espírito Santo State were linked. The results showed 3,523 adult AIDS cases and 9,958 adult TB cases resulted in 430 co-infected patients, who were compared to 1,290 AIDS patients who never developed TB. Among 430 co-infected patients, TB was diagnosed first in 223 (51.9%), AIDS was first in 44 (10.2%), and AIDS and TB were diagnosed concurrently in 163 (37.9%). Median age did not differ between co-infected cases (36 years (interquartile range [IQR] 29–43) and non-co-infected cases (34 years; IQR 28–42). Pulmonary tuberculosis was diagnosed in 239 (55.6%); 109 (25.3%) had extra-pulmonary TB and 82 (19.1%) had both presentations. In the final logistic regression model, living in a metropolitan area [Odds Ratio (OR)=1.43 (95% Confidence Interval (CI) 1.05–1.95)], education ≤3 years [OR=3.03 (95%CI 1.56–5.88)] and CD4 counts ≤200/mm3 [OR=1.14 (95%CI 1.09–1.18)] were associated with co-infection. This report emphasizes the significance of tuberculosis among AIDS cases in Brazil, and highlights the importance of evaluating secondary data for purposes of improving data quality and developing public health interventions.

BackgroundThe AIDS epidemic in Brazil remains concentrated in populations with high vulnerability to HIV infection, and the development of an HIV vaccine could make an important contribution to prevention. This study modeled the HIV epidemic and estimated the potential impact of an HIV vaccine on the number of new infections, deaths due to AIDS and the number of people receiving ARV treatment, under various scenarios.Methods and FindingsThe historical HIV prevalence was modeled using Spectrum and projections were made from 2010 to 2050 to study the impact of an HIV vaccine with 40% to 70% efficacy, and 80% coverage of adult population, specific groups such as MSM, IDU, commercial sex workers and their partners, and 15 year olds. The possibility of disinhibition after vaccination, neglecting medium- and high-risk groups, and a disease-modifying vaccine were also considered. The number of new infections and deaths were reduced by 73% and 30%, respectively, by 2050, when 80% of adult population aged 15–49 was vaccinated with a 40% efficacy vaccine. Vaccinating medium- and high-risk groups reduced new infections by 52% and deaths by 21%. A vaccine with 70% efficacy produced a great decline in new infections and deaths. Neglecting medium- and high-risk population groups as well as disinhibition of vaccinated population reduced the impact or even increased the number of new infections. Disease-modifying vaccine also contributed to reducing AIDS deaths, the need for ART and new HIV infections.ConclusionsEven in a country with a concentrated epidemic and high levels of ARV coverage, such as Brazil, moderate efficacy vaccines as part of a comprehensive package of treatment and prevention could have a major impact on preventing new HIV infections and AIDS deaths, as well as reducing the number of people on ARV. Targeted vaccination strategies may be highly effective and cost-beneficial.

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