The Global Macrofinancial Model by Francis Vitek IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.
This paper develops a structural macroeconometric model of the world economy, disaggregated into forty national economies. This panel dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model features a range of nominal and real rigidities, extensive macrofinancial linkages, and diverse spillover transmission channels. A variety of monetary policy analysis, fiscal policy analysis, spillover analysis, and forecasting applications of the estimated model are demonstrated. These include quantifying the monetary and fiscal transmission mechanisms, accounting for business cycle fluctuations, and generating relatively accurate forecasts of inflation and output growth.
The Great Recession underlined that policies in some countries can have profound spillovers elsewhere. Sadly, the solution of simulating large macroeconomic models to measure these spillovers has been found wanting. Typical models generate lower international correlations of output and financial asset prices than are seen in even pre-crisis data. Imposing higher financial market correlations creates more reasonable cross-country spillovers, and is likely to become the norm in policy modeling despite weak theoretical underpinnings, as is already true of sticky wages. We propose using event studies to calibrate market reactions to particular policy announcements, and report results for U.S. monetary and fiscal policy announcements in 2009 and 2010 that are plausible and event-specific.
This paper develops a structural macroeconometric model of the world economy, disaggregated into forty national economies. This panel dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model features a range of nominal and real rigidities, extensive macrofinancial linkages, and diverse spillover transmission channels. A variety of monetary policy analysis, fiscal policy analysis, macroprudential policy analysis, spillover analysis, and forecasting applications of the estimated model are demonstrated. These include quantifying the monetary, fiscal and macroprudential transmission mechanisms, accounting for business cycle fluctuations, and generating relatively accurate forecasts of inflation and output growth.
This paper conducts an assessment of external price competitiveness for Mozambique. A variety of indicators suggest that Mozambique has recently lost external price competitiveness with respect to its major trading partners. Consistent with these indicators, an exchange rate assessment indicates that the metical is overvalued by 26 to 41 percent in real effective terms. If sustained, an overvaluation of this magnitude has the potential to retard economic growth and jeopardize external stability, calling for an adjustment of monetary policy to gradually restore external price competitiveness. This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.
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