The COVID-19 (also called “SARS-CoV-2”) pandemic is causing a dramatic reduction in consumption, with a further drop in prices and a decrease in workers’ per capita income. To this will be added an increase in unemployment, which will further depress consumption. The real estate market, as for other productive and commercial sectors, in the short and mid-run, will not tend to move independently from the context of the aforementioned economic variables. The effect of pandemics or health emergencies on housing markets is an unexplored topic in international literature. For this reason, firstly, the few specific studies found are reported and, by analogy, studies on the effects of terrorism attacks and natural disasters on real estate prices are examined too. Subsequently, beginning from the real estate dynamics and economic indicators of the Campania region before the COVID-19 emergency, the current COVID-19 scenario is defined (focusing on unemployment, personal and household income, real estate judicial execution, real estate dynamics). Finally, a real estate pricing model is developed, evaluating the short and mid-run COVID-19 effects on housing prices. To predict possible changes in the mid-run of real estate judicial execution and real estate dynamics, the economic model of Lotka–Volterra (also known as the “prey–predator” model) was applied. Results of the model indicate a housing prices drop of 4.16% in the short-run and 6.49% in the mid-run (late 2020–early 2021).
The paper illustrates the phases and results of an evaluation model applied to abandoned industrial areas affected by critical environmental pollution. The main aim is to provide the economic evaluation of the impacts of critical environmental pollution on the market value of the areas, in anticipation of their future requalification and refunctionalization. Firstly, two mass appraisal models are applied: a regressive model in order to isolate the effects of real estate valorization generated by the requalification interventions of the abandoned steel mill areas of Bagnoli in Naples (Italy); an autoregressive model in relation to the chronology of the interventions and the real estate market dynamics, in order to predict values and costs of the building products to be realized on the areas. Subsequently, using the Ellwood model, the irreversible damage suffered by the areas in question due to the effect of critical environmental pollution is estimated. This irreversible damage corresponds to a “stigma” effect, or a loss to property value due to the presence of a risk perception-driven market resistance: for the abandoned steel mill areas of Bagnoli the reduction in the market value is equal to 28.63% approximately. The state of contamination of the areas is also described, estimating the related environmental remediation costs as a “deduction” to be applied to the “capital value” of the areas.
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