Flank instability and sector collapses, which pose major threats, are common on volcanic islands. On 22 Dec 2018, a sector collapse event occurred at Anak Krakatau volcano in the Sunda Strait, triggering a deadly tsunami. Here we use multiparametric ground-based and space-borne data to show that prior to its collapse, the volcano exhibited an elevated state of activity, including precursory thermal anomalies, an increase in the island’s surface area, and a gradual seaward motion of its southwestern flank on a dipping décollement. Two minutes after a small earthquake, seismic signals characterize the collapse of the volcano’s flank at 13:55 UTC. This sector collapse decapitated the cone-shaped edifice and triggered a tsunami that caused 430 fatalities. We discuss the nature of the precursor processes underpinning the collapse that culminated in a complex hazard cascade with important implications for the early detection of potential flank instability at other volcanoes.

Most of the world’s 1500 active volcanoes are not instrumentally monitored, resulting in deadly eruptions which can occur without observation of precursory activity. The new Sentinel missions are now providing freely available imagery with unprecedented spatial and temporal resolutions, with payloads allowing for a comprehensive monitoring of volcanic hazards. We here present the volcano monitoring platform MOUNTS (Monitoring Unrest from Space), which aims for global monitoring, using multisensor satellite-based imagery (Sentinel-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar SAR, Sentinel-2 Short-Wave InfraRed SWIR, Sentinel-5P TROPOMI), ground-based seismic data (GEOFON and USGS global earthquake catalogues), and artificial intelligence (AI) to assist monitoring tasks. It provides near-real-time access to surface deformation, heat anomalies, SO2 gas emissions, and local seismicity at a number of volcanoes around the globe, providing support to both scientific and operational communities for volcanic risk assessment. Results are visualized on an open-access website where both geocoded images and time series of relevant parameters are provided, allowing for a comprehensive understanding of the temporal evolution of volcanic activity and eruptive products. We further demonstrate that AI can play a key role in such monitoring frameworks. Here we design and train a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) on synthetically generated interferograms, to operationally detect strong deformation (e.g., related to dyke intrusions), in the real interferograms produced by MOUNTS. The utility of this interdisciplinary approach is illustrated through a number of recent eruptions (Erta Ale 2017, Fuego 2018, Kilauea 2018, Anak Krakatau 2018, Ambrym 2018, and Piton de la Fournaise 2018–2019). We show how exploiting multiple sensors allows for assessment of a variety of volcanic processes in various climatic settings, ranging from subsurface magma intrusion, to surface eruptive deposit emplacement, pre/syn-eruptive morphological changes, and gas propagation into the atmosphere. The data processed by MOUNTS is providing insights into eruptive precursors and eruptive dynamics of these volcanoes, and is sharpening our understanding of how the integration of multiparametric datasets can help better monitor volcanic hazards.

Escalating CO2 emissions precede basaltic explosive eruptions on time scales of weeks to months.

Thermal Remote Sensing for Volcano Monitoring volcanological community. The results presented clearly demonstrate how the open access of satellite thermal data and the sharing of derived products allow a better understanding of ongoing volcanic phenomena, and therefore constitute an essential requirement for the assessment of volcanic hazards.

After a month-long increase in activity at the summit craters, on 24 December 2018, the Etna volcano experienced a short-lived lateral effusive event followed by a rapid resumption of low-level explosive and degassing activity at the summit vents. By combining space (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer; MODIS and SENTINEL-2 images) and ground-based geophysical data, we track, in near real-time, the thermal, seismic and infrasonic changes associated with Etna’s activity during the September–December 2018 period. Satellite thermal data reveal that the fissural eruption was preceded by a persistent increase of summit activity, as reflected by overflow episodes in New SouthEast Crater (NSE) sector. This behavior is supported by infrasonic data, which recorded a constant increase both in the occurrence and in the energy of the strombolian activity at the same crater sectors mapped by satellite. The explosive activity trend is poorly constrained by the seismic tremor, which shows instead a sudden increase only since the 08:24 GMT on the 24 December 2018, almost concurrently with the end of the infrasonic detections occurred at 06:00 GMT. The arrays detected the resumption of infrasonic activity at 11:13 GMT of 24 December, when tremors almost reached the maximum amplitude. Infrasound indicates that the explosive activity was shifting from the summit crater along the flank of the Etna volcano, reflecting, with the seismic tremor, the intrusion of a gas-rich magma batch along a ~2.0 km long dyke, which reached the surface generating an intense explosive phase. The dyke propagation lasted for almost 3 h, during which magma migrated from the central conduit system to the lateral vent, at a mean speed of 0.15–0.20 m s−1. Based on MODIS and SENTINEL 2 images, we estimated that the summit outflows erupted a volume of lava of 1.4 Mm3 (±0.5 Mm3), and that the lateral effusive episode erupted a minimum volume of 0.85 Mm3 (±0.3 Mm3). The results presented here outline the support of satellite data on tracking the evolution of volcanic activity and the importance to integrate satellite with ground-based geophysical data in improving assessments of volcanic hazard during eruptive crises.

The mild activity of basaltic volcanoes is punctuated by violent explosive eruptions that occur without obvious precursors. Modelling the source processes of these sudden blasts is challenging. Here, we use two decades of ground deformation (tilt) records from Stromboli volcano to shed light, with unprecedented detail, on the short-term (minute-scale) conduit processes that drive such violent volcanic eruptions. We find that explosive eruptions, with source parameters spanning seven orders of magnitude, all share a common pre-blast ground inflation trend. We explain this exponential inflation using a model in which pressure build-up is caused by the rapid expansion of volatile-rich magma rising from depth into a shallow (<400 m) resident magma conduit. We show that the duration and amplitude of this inflation trend scales with the eruption magnitude, indicating that the explosive dynamics obey the same (scale-invariant) conduit process. This scale-invariance of pre-explosion ground deformation may usher in a new era of short-term eruption forecasting.

In the satellite thermal remote sensing, the new generation of sensors with high-spatial resolution SWIR data open the door to an improved constraining of thermal phenomena related to volcanic processes, with strong implications for monitoring applications. In this paper, we describe a new hot-spot detection algorithm developed for SENTINEL-2/MSI data that combines spectral indices on the SWIR bands 8a-11-12 (with a 20-meter resolution) with a spatial and statistical analysis on clusters of alerted pixels. The algorithm is able to detect hot-spot-contaminated pixels (S2Pix) in a wide range of environments and for several types of volcanic activities, showing high accuracy performances of about 1% and 94% in averaged omission and commission rates, respectively, underlining a strong reliability on a global scale. The S2-derived thermal trends, retrieved at eight key-case volcanoes, are then compared with the Volcanic Radiative Power (VRP) derived from MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) and processed by the MIROVA (Middle InfraRed Observation of Volcanic Activity) system during an almost four-year-long period, January 2016 to October 2019. The presented data indicate an overall excellent correlation between the two thermal signals, enhancing the higher sensitivity of SENTINEL-2 to detect subtle, low-temperature thermal signals. Moreover, for each case we explore the specific relationship between S2Pix and VRP showing how different volcanic processes (i.e., lava flows, domes, lakes and open-vent activity) produce a distinct pattern in terms of size and intensity of the thermal anomaly. These promising results indicate how the algorithm here presented could be applicable for volcanic monitoring purposes and integrated into operational systems. Moreover, the combination of high-resolution (S2/MSI) and moderate-resolution (MODIS) thermal timeseries constitutes a breakthrough for future multi-sensor hot-spot detection systems, with increased monitoring capabilities that are useful for communities which interact with active volcanoes.

Volcanoes are traditionally considered isolated with an activity that is mostly independent of the surrounding, with few eruptions only (< 2%) associated with a tectonic earthquake trigger. Evidence is now increasing that volcanoes forming clusters of eruptive centers may simultaneously erupt, show unrest, or even shut-down activity. Using infrared satellite data, we detail 20 years of eruptive activity (2000–2020) at Klyuchevskoy, Bezymianny, and Tolbachik, the three active volcanoes of the Klyuchevskoy Volcanic Group (KVG), Kamchatka. We show that the neighboring volcanoes exhibit multiple and reciprocal interactions on different timescales that unravel the magmatic system’s complexity below the KVG. Klyuchevskoy and Bezymianny volcanoes show correlated activity with time-predictable and quasiperiodic behaviors, respectively. This is consistent with magma accumulation and discharge dynamics at both volcanoes, typical of steady-state volcanism. However, Tolbachik volcano can interrupt this steady-state regime and modify the magma output rate of its neighbors for several years. We suggest that below the KVG the transfer of magma at crustal level is modulated by the presence of three distinct but hydraulically connected plumbing systems. Similar complex interactions may occur at other volcanic groups and must be considered to evaluate the hazard of grouped volcanoes.