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Accurate risk stratification in COVID-19 patients consists a major clinical need to guide therapeutic strategies. We sought to evaluate the prognostic role of estimated pulse wave velocity (ePWV), a marker of arterial stiffness which reflects overall arterial integrity and aging, in risk stratification of hospitalized patients with COVID-19. This retrospective, longitudinal cohort study, analyzed a total population of 1671 subjects consisting of 737 hospitalized COVID-19 patients consecutively recruited from two tertiary centers (Newcastle cohort: n = 471 and Pisa cohort: n = 266) and a non-COVID control cohort (n = 934). Arterial stiffness was calculated using validated formulae for ePWV. ePWV progressively increased across the control group, COVID-19 survivors and deceased patients (adjusted mean increase per group 1.89 m/s, P < 0.001). Using a machine learning approach, ePWV provided incremental prognostic value and improved reclassification for mortality over the core model including age, sex and comorbidities [AUC (core model + ePWV vs. core model) = 0.864 vs. 0.755]. ePWV provided similar prognostic value when pulse pressure or hs-Troponin were added to the core model or over its components including age and mean blood pressure (p < 0.05 for all). The optimal prognostic ePWV value was 13.0 m/s. ePWV conferred additive discrimination (AUC: 0.817 versus 0.779, P < 0.001) and reclassification value (NRI = 0.381, P < 0.001) over the 4C Mortality score, a validated score for predicting mortality in COVID-19 and the Charlson comorbidity index. We suggest that calculation of ePWV, a readily applicable estimation of arterial stiffness, may serve as an additional clinical tool to refine risk stratification of hospitalized patients with COVID-19 beyond established risk factors and scores.

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Background Diaphragmatic dysfunction is a major factor responsible for weaning failure in patients that underwent prolonged invasive mechanical ventilation for acute severe respiratory failure from COVID-19. This study hypothesizes that ultrasound measured diaphragmatic thickening fraction (DTF) could provide corroborating information for weaning COVID-19 patients from mechanical ventilation. Methods This was an observational, pragmatic, cross-section, multicenter study in 6 Italian intensive care units. DTF was assessed in COVID-19 patients undergoing weaning from mechanical ventilation from 1st March 2020 to 30th June 2021. Primary aim was to evaluate whether DTF is a predictive factor for weaning failure. Results Fifty-seven patients were enrolled, 25 patients failed spontaneous breathing trial (44%). Median length of invasive ventilation was 14 days (IQR 7–22). Median DTF within 24 h since the start of weaning was 28% (IQR 22–39%), RASS score (− 2 vs − 2; p = 0.031); Kelly-Matthay score (2 vs 1; p = 0.002); inspiratory oxygen fraction (0.45 vs 0.40; p = 0.033). PaO2/FiO2 ratio was lower (176 vs 241; p = 0.032) and length of intensive care stay was longer (27 vs 16.5 days; p = 0.025) in patients who failed weaning. The generalized linear regression model did not select any variables that could predict weaning failure. DTF was correlated with pH (RR 1.56 × 1027; p = 0.002); Kelly-Matthay score (RR 353; p < 0.001); RASS (RR 2.11; p = 0.003); PaO2/FiO2 ratio (RR 1.03; p = 0.05); SAPS2 (RR 0.71; p = 0.005); hospital and ICU length of stay (RR 1.22 and 0.79, respectively; p < 0.001 and p = 0.004). Conclusions DTF in COVID-19 patients was not predictive of weaning failure from mechanical ventilation, and larger studies are needed to evaluate it in clinical practice further. Registered: ClinicalTrial.gov (NCT05019313, 24 August 2021).