This study aimed to assess the spatiotemporal sensitivity of the net irrigation water requirement (NIWR) to changes in climate, for sixteen crops widely cultivated in four irrigation projects located in arid and semi-arid regions of Iraq. Using LARS-WG and five GCMs, the minimum and maximum temperature and precipitation were projected for three periods from 2021–2080 with 20-year steps (P1, P2, and P3) under representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5. Weather data available for a reference period from 1990–2019 in four representatives’ meteorological stations were used. The climate variables and other required data were inserted into the CROPWAT 8 NIWR tool. Findings revealed that the increase in the NIWR for the considered crops due to climate change falls in the range 0.1–42.4%, 1.8–44.5%, 1.2–25.1%, and 0.7–14.7% for the North Jazeera Irrigation Project (NJIP), Kirkuk Irrigation Project (KRIP), Upper Khalis Irrigation Project (UKIP), and Dalmaj Irri-gation Project (DLIP), respectively. Barley is more susceptible to changes in climate, whereas maize, potato, soybean, and millet are found to withstand changes in climate better than others. The novel outcomes of this study support optimal spatiotemporal allocation of irrigation water requirement and the sustainable management of water resources in a changing climate in arid and semi-arid regions.
An assessment of the total hydrologic response of arid and semi-arid river basins to various scenarios of climate change by considering evapotranspiration, streamflow, and snowmelt is essential for sustainable management of water resources. The Diyala River Basin in Iraq has been chosen as a typical case study of dozens of river basins in arid and semi-arid regions. Here, the LASRS-WG, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), and the SWAT Calibration and Uncertainty Program (CUP) were used to evaluate the total response by considering three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs); RCPs 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 over three periods, 2021–2040, 2041–2061, and 2061–2080, were considered. The results indicate that by the year 2080, the basin will experience a temperature increase by 6.6, 10.1, and 16.6% for RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5, respectively. The corresponding reduction in precipitation will be 3.2, 6.4, and 8.7%, resulting in 38.8, 47.9, and 52.8% fall in streamflow for RCPs 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5, respectively. Due to the increase in temperature, an earlier and less contribution of snowmelt is expected in the projected streamflow. Our findings provide a useful reference and a guide to decision makers for developing adaption plans to sustainably manage water resources in the Diyala River Basin and other similar basins in arid and semi-arid regions.
Lesser Zab is one of the most important tributaries of Tigris River. During the last few decades, the streamflow significantly decreased for long periods followed by extensive flood in short periods. This study aimed to quantify the impact of climate change on streamflow at Dokan Dam until year 2050 using SWAT model based on the scenario of medium emission (A1B) and five climate projection models. SWAT run using Climate Forecasting System Reanalysis (CFSR) was used as weather input data then calibrated and validated on monthly time step for the period from 1980 to 2013 with Nash-Sutcliff Efficiency (NSE) of 0.73 and determination coefficient (R2) 0.73 for calibration processes. The data of this period is more reliable. The result indicated to a significant decrease on the projected streamflow until year 2050 with average streamflow for the six climate models of 167 m 3 /sec in past compared with the observed streamflow of 176.5 m 3 /sec for the base period (1980-2013). In addition, the study shows that most runoffs come from Iranian part of the Dokan Dam Watershed with 65% of total simulated runoff. It is highly recommended to improve the efficiency of water using for current and future water projects to meet the expected water shortage.
Twenty daily time step-based SWAT simulation models for the Duhok, Adhaim and Dokan dam watersheds, in Iraq, were implemented using five land cover (LC) and digital elevation model (DEM) of different resolutions. The optimal LC and DEM for computing the most accurate streamflow for each watershed were specified. Results indicated that delineation of the flat watersheds is significantly affected by the DEM resolution and there was no evident trend on the computation of watersheds' total areas, boundaries, number of subbasins and stream networks. Moreover, there is no significant trend between the increase in LC and DEM resolutions and accuracy of the computed streamflow. The most accurate streamflows for the Duhok, Adhaim and Dokan watersheds were computed using LC (DEM) of 30 m, 1000 m and 1000 m.
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