ObjectiveEmergency department (ED) overcrowding is acknowledged as an increasingly important issue worldwide. Hospital managers are increasingly paying attention to ED crowding in order to provide higher quality medical services to patients. One of the crucial elements for a good management strategy is demand forecasting. Our study sought to construct an adequate model and to forecast monthly ED visits.MethodsWe retrospectively gathered monthly ED visits from January 2009 to December 2016 to carry out a time series autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) analysis. Initial development of the model was based on past ED visits from 2009 to 2016. A best-fit model was further employed to forecast the monthly data of ED visits for the next year (2016). Finally, we evaluated the predicted accuracy of the identified model with the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The software packages SAS/ETS V.9.4 and Office Excel 2016 were used for all statistical analyses.ResultsA series of statistical tests showed that six models, including ARIMA (0, 0, 1), ARIMA (1, 0, 0), ARIMA (1, 0, 1), ARIMA (2, 0, 1), ARIMA (3, 0, 1) and ARIMA (5, 0, 1), were candidate models. The model that gave the minimum Akaike information criterion and Schwartz Bayesian criterion and followed the assumptions of residual independence was selected as the adequate model. Finally, a suitable ARIMA (0, 0, 1) structure, yielding a MAPE of 8.91%, was identified and obtained as Visitt=7111.161+(at+0.37462 at−1).ConclusionThe ARIMA (0, 0, 1) model can be considered adequate for predicting future ED visits, and its forecast results can be used to aid decision-making processes.
OBJECTIVESRetained haemothorax and pneumothorax are the most common complications after blunt chest traumas. Lung lacerations derived from fractures of the ribs are usually found in these patients. Video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery (VATS) is usually used as a routine procedure in the treatment of retained pleural collections. The objective of this study was to find out if there is any advantage in adding the procedure for repairing lacerated lungs during VATS.METHODSPatients who were brought to our hospital with blunt chest trauma were enrolled into this prospective cohort study from January 2004 to December 2011. All enrolled patients had rib fractures with type III lung lacerations diagnosed by CT scans. They sustained retained pleural collections and surgical drainage was indicated. On one group, only evacuation procedure by VATS was performed. On the other group, not only evacuations but also repair of lung injuries were performed. Patients with penetrating injury or blunt injury with massive bleeding, that required emergency thoracotomy, were excluded from the study, in addition to those with cardiovascular or oesophageal injuries.RESULTSDuring the study period, 88 patients who underwent thoracoscopy were enrolled. Among them, 43 patients undergoing the simple thoracoscopic evacuation method were stratified into Group 1. The remaining 45 patients who underwent thoracoscopic evacuation combined with resection of lung lacerations were stratified into Group 2. The rates of post-traumatic infection were higher in Group 1. The durations of chest-tube drainage and ventilator usage were shorter in Group 2, as were the lengths of patient intensive care unit stay and hospital stay.CONCLUSIONSWhen compared with simple thoracoscopic evacuation methods, repair and resection of the injured lungs combined may result in better clinical outcomes in patients who sustained blunt chest injuries.
Background Blunt chest injuries are usually combined with multiple rib fractures and severe lung contusions. This can occasionally induce acute respiratory failure and prolong ventilations. In order to reduce the periods of ventilator dependency, we propose a less invasive method of fixing multiple rib fractures.Methods Since October 2009, we have developed a new method to fix fractured ribs caused by blunt trauma. Rib fixations were performed using 2.0- or 2.5-mm intramedullary titanium elastic nails (TEN), with the help of video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery (VATS) and minimal thoracic incisions. All the patients’ demographics and postoperative data were collected.ResultsFrom January 2010 to December 2012, a total of 65 patients presenting with multiple rib fractures resulting in acute respiratory failure were included in the study. Twelve patients received the new surgical fixation. Rib fixations were performed at an average of 4 days after trauma. Patients were successfully weaned off ventilators after an average of 3 days. The average length of stay in the hospital and the intensive care unit (ICU) was shorter for the patients with fixation than for nonsurgical patients. All twelve patients returned to normal daily activities and work.Conclusions In the reconstruction of an injured chest wall, the VATS with TENs fixation in multiple rib fractures is feasible. This method is also effective in decreasing the length of the surgical wound. Because the structure of the chest cage is protected, the period of mechanical ventilation is shortened and the length of stay in the hospital and the ICU can be reduced.
BackgroundMajor blunt chest injury usually leads to the development of retained hemothorax and pneumothorax, and needs further intervention. However, since blunt chest injury may be combined with blunt head injury that typically requires patient observation for 3–4 days, other critical surgical interventions may be delayed. The purpose of this study is to analyze the outcomes of head injury patients who received early, versus delayed thoracic surgeries.Materials and methodsFrom May 2005 to February 2012, 61 patients with major blunt injuries to the chest and head were prospectively enrolled. These patients had an intracranial hemorrhage without indications of craniotomy. All the patients received video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery (VATS) due to retained hemothorax or pneumothorax. Patients were divided into two groups according to the time from trauma to operation, this being within 4 days for Group 1 and more than 4 days for Group 2. The clinical outcomes included hospital length of stay (LOS), intensive care unit (ICU) LOS, infection rates, and the time period of ventilator use and chest tube intubation.ResultAll demographics, including age, gender, and trauma severity between the two groups showed no statistical differences. The average time from trauma to operation was 5.8 days. The ventilator usage period, the hospital and ICU length of stay were longer in Group 2 (6.77 vs. 18.55, p = 0.016; 20.63 vs. 35.13, p = 0.003; 8.97 vs. 17.65, p = 0.035). The rates of positive microbial cultures in pleural effusion collected during VATS were higher in Group 2 (6.7 vs. 29.0%, p = 0.043). The Glasgow Coma Scale score for all patients improved when patients were discharged (11.74 vs. 14.10, p < 0.05).DiscussionIn this study, early VATS could be performed safely in brain hemorrhage patients without indication of surgical decompression. The clinical outcomes were much better in patients receiving early intervention within 4 days after trauma.
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