Social scientists have criticised computer models of pedestrian streams for their treatment of psychological crowds as mere aggregations of individuals. Indeed most models for evacuation dynamics use analogies from physics where pedestrians are considered as particles. Although this ensures that the results of the simulation match important physical phenomena, such as the deceleration of the crowd with increasing density, social phenomena such as group processes are ignored. In particular, people in a crowd have social identities and share those social identities with the others in the crowd. The process of self categorisation determines norms within the crowd and influences how people will behave in evacuation situations. We formulate the application of social identity in pedestrian simulation algorithmically. The goal is to examine whether it is possible to carry over the psychological model to computer models of pedestrian motion so that simulation results correspond to observations from crowd psychology. That is, we quantify and formalise empirical research on and verbal descriptions of the effect of group identity on behaviour. We use uncertainty quantification to analyse the model's behaviour when we vary crucial model parameters. In this first approach we restrict ourselves to a specific scenario that was thoroughly investigated by crowd psychologists and where some quantitative data is available: the bombing and subsequent evacuation of a London underground tube carriage on July 7th 2005.Comment: accepted by Safety Science, 34 pages (incl. bibliography
Abstract. Recently, the ANSI committee for the standardization of the SQL language has published the specification for temporal data support. This new ability allows users to create and manipulate temporal data in a significantly simpler way instead of implementing the same features using triggers and database applications. In this article we examine the creation and manipulation of temporal data using built-in temporal logic and compare its performance with the performance of equivalent hand-coded applications. For this study, we use an existing commercial database system, which supports the standardized temporal data model.
To foster predictive simulations, a variety of methods have recently been developed to efficiently tackle uncertainty quantification (UQ) in complex, computational intensive problems. Many of these methods are non-intrusive and, thus, result in a (large) number of embarrassingly parallel black-box evaluations of the underlying simulation codes. While the focus of development is typically on the number of black-box evaluations, which represents the bulk of the computational workload, an additional level of potential performance gains exists. In many scenarios, uncertain input leads not only to uncertain outputs, but also to a varying and thus stochastic runtime of the simulation codes. For scheduling the individual black-box runs, this information is typically not taken into account, resulting in non-negligible idling times on parallel systems. In this contribution, we compare a variety of different scheduling strategies for non-intrusive UQ scenarios using the non-intrusive polynomial chaos approach. In particular, we propose to construct a surrogate model for the runtime of the application using the identical UQ methodology as for the original problem. Using this model to predict the runtimes for subsequent black-box runs allows for (heuristical) optimization of the scheduling. The method has been tested for the forward quantification of uncertainty on academic models and on a pedestrian simulation in the context of evacuation scenarios. This approach allows speed-up factors of about two for the total runtime and can be generalised to a large variety of applications that incorporate parameter-dependent runtime.
It is difficult to provide live simulation systems for decision support. Time is limited and uncertainty quantification requires many simulation runs. We combine a surrogate model with the stochastic collocation method to overcome time and storage restrictions and show a proof of concept for a de-boarding scenario of a train.
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