Aim: Changes in climatic conditions are predicted to impact species distribution and hence alter their diversity patterns. Modifications in the composition of biological communities are expected as a result of the loss and replacement of species due to global warming. Forest frugivorous birds already suffer from habitat loss and may disappear locally due to suitable area contraction or range shifts to novel areas, disrupting seed dispersal and consequently the functioning of natural ecosystems. Here, we investigate the impacts of different climate scenarios on alpha and beta diversities of forest frugivorous birds.Location: Central Corridor of the Atlantic Forest (CCAF), Brazil. Methods:We used ecological niche models to project species distribution of 68 frugivorous birds for the baseline and future (2050 and 2070) scenarios. We generated binary maps of suitable areas for each species by climate scenario to calculate alpha and beta diversities.Results: Most forest frugivorous birds were projected to lose suitable area, as a consequence of climate change, reducing alpha diversity in future scenarios and increasing temporal beta diversity, which is dominated by the nestedness component. In addition, species richness decreased from the east to the west portion of the CCAF, while differentiation of bird communities increased in the same direction, a pattern consistent across all climate scenarios evaluated.Main conclusions: Climate change may exert drastic alterations in the composition of frugivorous bird communities in the CCAF. As forest frugivorous birds are critical to seed dispersal of forest plant species, impoverishment of their communities can drastically affect forest regeneration, diversity, and structure in the decades to come. Therefore, a better comprehension of spatio-temporal changes in diversity patterns of frugivorous birds can help us to avoid the disruption of seed dispersal and its consequences, such as cascading effects that will trigger biodiversity loss in the CCAF.
Habitat loss is one of the main threats to biodiversity. Fragmentation resulting from this process may restrict available habitat for primates, limiting their persistence in a given region. In this study, we aimed to quantify deforestation and fragmentation by identifying forest remnants capable of maintaining populations of the endangered crested capuchin monkey (Sapajus robustus) within its distributional limits in the states of Bahia, Espírito Santo, and Minas Gerais, Brazil. We used Landsat images from 1985 to 2010 to generate three time-interval mosaics classified by natural and non-natural vegetation. We then calculated the size of the forest remnants and the distance of each fragment of natural vegetation to its nearest neighbor. Between the first (1985-1990) and second (1995-2000) mosaics there was a vegetation loss of 41.4%, and between the second and third (2005-2010) mosaics there was a natural vegetation gain of 1%. The third mosaic showed smaller and more isolated fragments in comparison to the first mosaic. Across the three periods, Bahia was the state with the highest rate of deforestation. While Espírito Santo had fewer identified forest remnants, it retained the most natural vegetation within these small fragments. The landscape within the currently recognized distributional limits of the crested capuchin monkey is dominated by agriculture and livestock. Both decreasing fragment size and increasing species isolation by distance between fragments can negatively affect primate populations, increasing their risk of extinction. Isolation makes it difficult for migration and recolonization events to occur. Therefore, habitat restoration should be prioritized to reduce isolation between populations. Our findings may serve as a resource for future conservation efforts and management of the crested capuchin monkey.
Biodiversity is already experiencing the effects of climate change through range expansion, retraction, or relocation, potentializing negative effects of other threats. Future projections already indicate richness reduction and composition modifications of bird communities due to global warming, which may disrupt the provision of key ecological services to ecosystem maintenance. Here, we systematically review the effect of morphological, ecological, and geographical traits on the amount of future suitable area for birds worldwide. Specifically, we tested whether body mass, diet, habitat type, movement pattern, range size, and biogeographic realm affect birds' suitable area. Our search returned 75 studies that modeled the effects of climate change on 1,991 bird species. Our analyses included 1,661 species belonging to 128 families, representing 83% of the total, for which we were able to acquire all the six traits. The proportion of birds' suitable area was affected by range size, body mass, habitat type, and biogeographic realm, while diet and movement pattern showed lower relative importance and were not included in our final model. Contrary to expectations, the proportion of birds' suitable area was negatively related to range size, which may be explained by higher climatic stability predicted in certain areas that harbor species with restricted distribution. In contrast, we observed that birds presenting higher body mass will show an increase of the proportion of suitable area in the future. This is expected due to the high exposure of smaller birds to environmental changes and their difficulty to keep thermoregulation. Our results also indicated a low proportion of suitable area to forest-dependent birds, which is in accordance with their higher vulnerability due to specific requirements for reproduction and feeding. Finally, the proportion of suitable area was low for birds from Oceania, which is expected since the region encompasses small islands isolated from continents, preventing their species from reaching new suitable areas. Our study highlights that different traits should be considered when assessing extinction risk of species based on future projections, helping to improve bird conservation, especially the most vulnerable to climate change.
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