The classical fold bifurcation is a paradigmatic example of a critical transition. It has been used in a variety of contexts, including in particular ecology and climate science, to motivate the role of slow recovery rates and increased autocorrelations as early-warning signals of such transitions.We study the influence of external forcing on fold bifurcations and the respective earlywarning signals. Thereby, our prime examples are single-species population dynamical models with Allee effect under the influence of either quasiperiodic forcing or bounded random noise. We show that the presence of these external factors may lead to so-called non-smooth fold bifurcations, and thereby has a significant impact on the behaviour of the Lyapunov exponents (and hence the recovery rates). In particular, it may lead to the absence of critical slowing down prior to population collapse. More precisely, unlike in the unforced case, the question whether slow recovery rates can be observed prior to the transition crucially depends on the chosen time-scales and the size of the considered data set.
In this paper, we formulate and analyze a mathematical model to investigate the transmission dynamics of tomato bacterial wilt disease (TBWD) in Mukono district, Uganda. We derive the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] and prove the existence of a disease-free equilibrium point which is globally stable if [Formula: see text] and an endemic equilibrium which exists if [Formula: see text]. Model parameters are estimated using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods and robustness tested. The model parameters were observed to be identifiable. Numerical simulations show that soil solarization and sensitization of farmers can help to eliminate the disease in Uganda. A modified tomato bacterial wilt model with control terms is formulated.
The classical fold bifurcation is a paradigmatic example of a critical transition. It has been used in a variety of contexts, including in particular ecology and climate science, to motivate the role of slow recovery rates and increased autocorrelations as early-warning signals of such transitions. We study the influence of external forcing on fold bifurcations and the respective early-warning signals. Thereby, our prime examples are single-species population dynamical models with Allee effect under the influence of either quasiperiodic forcing or bounded random noise. We show that the presence of these external factors may lead to so-called non-smooth fold bifurcations, and thereby has a significant impact on the behaviour of the Lyapunov exponents (and hence the recovery rates). In particular, it may lead to the absence of critical slowing down prior to population collapse. More precisely, unlike in the unforced case, the question whether slow recovery rates can be observed or detected prior to the transition crucially depends on the chosen time-scales and the size of the considered data set.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.
hi@scite.ai
10624 S. Eastern Ave., Ste. A-614
Henderson, NV 89052, USA
Copyright © 2024 scite LLC. All rights reserved.
Made with 💙 for researchers
Part of the Research Solutions Family.