Objective To determine the speed at which the Grim Reaper (or Death) walks.Design Population based prospective study.Setting Older community dwelling men living in Sydney, Australia.Participants 1705 men aged 70 or more participating in CHAMP (Concord Health and Ageing in Men Project).Main outcome measures Walking speed (m/s) and mortality. Receiver operating characteristics curve analysis was used to calculate the area under the curve for walking speed and determine the walking speed of the Grim Reaper. The optimal walking speed was estimated using the Youden index (sensitivity+specificity−1), a common summary measure of the receiver operating characteristics curve, and represents the maximum potential effectiveness of a marker. ResultsThe mean walking speed was 0.88 (range 0.15-1.60) m/s. The highest Youden index (0.293) was observed at a walking speed of 0.82 m/s (2 miles (about 3 km) per hour), corresponding to a sensitivity of 63% and a specificity of 70% for mortality. Survival analysis showed that older men who walked faster than 0.82 m/s were 1.23 times less likely to die (95% confidence interval 1.10 to 1.37) than those who walked slower (P=0.0003). A sensitivity of 1.0 was obtained when a walking speed of 1.36 m/s (3 miles (about 5 km) per hour) or greater was used, indicating that no men with walking speeds of 1.36 m/s or greater had contact with Death. ConclusionThe Grim Reaper's preferred walking speed is 0.82 m/s (2 miles (about 3 km) per hour) under working conditions. As none of the men in the study with walking speeds of 1.36 m/s (3 miles (about 5 km) per hour) or greater had contact with Death, this seems to be the Grim Reaper's most likely maximum speed; for those wishing to avoid their allotted fate, this would be the advised walking speed.

Age-related changes in blood androgens and estrogens may contribute to the development or progression of frailty in men.

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BackgroundThere is a lack of evidence on the contribution of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to institutionalization in older adults. This study aimed to evaluate a range of risk factors including MCI of institutionalization in older men.MethodsMen aged ≥70 years (n = 1705), participating in the Concord Health and Ageing in Men Project, Sydney, Australia were studied. Participants completed self-reported questionnaires and underwent comprehensive clinical assessments during 2005–2007. Institutionalization was defined as entry into a nursing home facility or hostel at any time over an average of 5 years of follow-up. Cox regression analysis was conducted to generate hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI).ResultsA total of 125 (7.3%) participants were institutionalized. Piecewise Cox proportional models were generated and divided at 3.4 years (1250 days) of follow-up due to violation of the proportional hazards assumption for the association between MCI and institutionalization (χ2 = 6.44, p = 0.01). Dementia, disability in Activities of Daily Living (ADL) and Instrumental Activities of Daily Living (IADL), poor grip strength, few social interactions, being a Non-English speaking immigrant and age were predictive of institutionalization during both time periods, whereas MCI (HR = 4.39, 95%CI 2.17–8.87) only predicted institutionalization in the period beyond 3.4 years of follow-up. Being married (HR = 0.42, 95%CI: 0.24–0.72) was protective only during the period after 3.4 years of follow-up.DiscussionIn this study, the strongest predictors of institutionalization were dementia, MCI, ADL and IADL disability. MCI was not a predictor of early institutionalization but became a significant predictor beyond 3.4 years of follow-up.

BackgroundPolypharmacy has not been investigated in patients living with HIV in developing countries. The aims of this study were to determine the prevalence of polypharmacy, the factors associated with polypharmacy and whether polypharmacy was associated with adverse effects among older adults on anti-retroviral therapy (ART).MethodsCross-sectional study in older adults aged 50 and over on ART attending an outpatient HIV/AIDS care centre in Uganda. Demographic and clinical data collected on number and type of medications plus supplements, possible medication related side-effects, comorbidity, frailty, cognitive impairment, current CD4 count and viral load.ResultsOf 411 participants, 63 (15.3, 95% C.I. 11.9, 18.8) had polypharmacy (≥ 4 non- HIV medications). In multivariate analyses, polypharmacy was associated with one or more hospitalisations in the last year (Prevalence Ratio PR = 1.8, 95% C.I. 1.1, 3.1, p = 0.02), prescription by an internist (PR = 3.6, 95% C.I. 1.3, 10.5, p = 0.02) and frailty index scores of 5 to 6 (PR = 10.6, 95% C.I. 1.4, 78, p = 0.02), and 7 or more (PR = 17.4, 95% C.I. 2.4, 126.5, p = 0.005). Polypharmacy was not associated with frequency and severity of possible medication related side effects and falls.ConclusionPolypharmacy is common among older HIV infected patients in sub-Saharan Africa. It’s more prevalent among frail people, who have been in hospital in the last year and who have been seen by an internist. We found no evidence that polypharmacy results in any harm but this is worth exploring further.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1186/s12877-018-0817-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Background Medical tests provide important information to guide clinical management. Overtesting, however, may cause harm to patients and the healthcare system, including through misdiagnosis, false positives, false negatives and overdiagnosis. Clinicians are ultimately responsible for test requests, and are therefore ideally positioned to prevent overtesting and its unintended consequences. Through this narrative literature review and workshop discussion with experts at the Preventing Overdiagnosis Conference (Sydney, 2019), we aimed to identify and establish a thematic framework of factors that influence clinicians to request non-recommended and unnecessary tests. Methods Articles exploring factors affecting clinician test ordering behaviour were identified through a systematic search of MedLine in April 2019, forward and backward citation searches and content experts. Two authors screened abstract titles and abstracts, and two authors screened full text for inclusion. Identified factors were categorised into a preliminary framework which was subsequently presented at the PODC for iterative development. Results The MedLine search yielded 542 articles; 55 were included. Another 10 articles identified by forward-backward citation and content experts were included, resulting in 65 articles in total. Following small group discussion with workshop participants, a revised thematic framework of factors was developed: “Intrapersonal” – fear of malpractice and litigation; clinician knowledge and understanding; intolerance of uncertainty and risk aversion; cognitive biases and experiences; sense of medical obligation “Interpersonal” – pressure from patients and doctor-patient relationship; pressure from colleagues and medical culture; “Environment/context” – guidelines, protocols and policies; financial incentives and ownership of tests; time constraints, physical vulnerabilities and language barriers; availability and ease of access to tests; pre-emptive testing to facilitate subsequent care; contemporary medical practice and new technology Conclusion This thematic framework may raise awareness of overtesting and prompt clinicians to change their test request behaviour. The development of a scale to assess clinician knowledge, attitudes and practices is planned to allow evaluation of clinician-targeted interventions to reduce overtesting.

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Background: Italian migrants are one of the largest groups of older migrants in Australia. Past research has found lower mortality rates in Italian migrants but it is unclear if this persists into older age. Methods: Data came from 334 Italian-born and 849 Australian-born men aged 70 years and over participating in a longitudinal study of men's ageing. Results: Male Italian migrants were more likely to smoke, be overweight, and have lower socioeconomic status (SES). They also had higher morbidity from diabetes, chronic pain, dementia and depressive symptoms but lower morbidity from heart disease and cancer. There was no age-adjusted mortality difference. However, adjusting for SES, lifestyle and morbidity differences revealed a 25% lower mortality rate (adjusted HR = 0.75; 95% CI: 0.57, 0.98) in Italian-born men. Conclusions: Compared to their Australian-born counterparts, older Italian-born men have a lower mortality than expected considering their lower SES, higher smoking and higher morbidity.