Cacao (Theobroma cacao L.) is a tropical perennial crop which is of great economic importance to the confectionary industry and to the economies of many countries of the humid tropics where it is grown. Some recent studies have suggested that climate change could severely impact cacao production in West Africa. It is essential to incorporate our understanding of the physiology and genetic variation within cacao germplasm when discussing the implications of climate change on cacao productivity and developing strategies for climate resilience in cacao production. Here, we review the current research on the physiological responses of cacao to various climate factors. Our main findings are as follows: (1) water limitation causes significant yield reduction in cacao, but genotypic variation in sensitivity is evident; (2) in the field, cacao experiences higher temperatures than is often reported in the literature; (3) the complexity of the cacao/shade tree interaction can lead to contradictory results; (4) elevated CO 2 may alleviate some negative effects of climate change; (5) implementation of mitigation strategies can help reduce environmental stress; and (6) significant gaps in the research need addressing to accelerate the development of climate resilience. Harnessing the significant genetic variation apparent within cacao germplasm is essential to develop modern varieties capable of high yields in non-optimal conditions. Mitigation strategies will also be essential, but to use shading to best effect shade tree selection is crucial to avoid resource competition. Cacao is often described as being sensitive to climate change, but genetic variation, adaptive responses, appropriate mitigation strategies and interactive climate effects should all be considered when predicting the future of cacao production. Incorporating these physiological responses to various environmental conditions and developing a deeper understanding of the processes underlying these responses will help to accelerate the development of a more resource use efficient tree ensuring sustainable production into the future.

Atmospheric CO2 concentration continues to rise and is predicted to reach approximately 700 ppm by 2100. Some predictions suggest that the dry season in West Africa could be extended with climate change. This study examined the effects of elevated CO 2 concentration and water deficit on growth and photosynthesis of juvenile cacao. Light-saturated photosynthesis (P max ), quantum efficiency, and intrinsic water-use efficiency increased significantly in response to elevated CO 2 , as did a range of growth and development responses (e.g. leaf area and leaf number), but the magnitude of the increase was dependent on the water treatment. Stomatal index was significantly greater in the elevated CO 2 treatment; an atypical response which may be a reflection of the environment in which cacao evolved. This study shows a positive effect of elevated CO 2 on juvenile cacao which may help to alleviate some of the negative impacts of water deficit stress.

Climate change poses a significant threat to agricultural production in the tropics, yet relatively little research has been carried out to understand its impact on mature tropical tree crops. This research aims to understand the genotypic variation in growth and photosynthesis in mature cacao trees in response to elevated CO2 and water deficit. Six genotypes were grown under greenhouse conditions at ambient (ca. 437 ppm) and elevated CO2 (ca. 724 ppm) and under well-watered and water deficit conditions for 23 months. Leaf- and canopy-level photosynthesis, water-use efficiency, and vegetative growth increased significantly in response to elevated CO2. Water deficit had a significant negative effect on many photosynthetic parameters and significantly reduced biomass production. The negative effect of water deficit on quantum efficiency was alleviated by elevated CO2. Genotypic variation was observed in several parameters including stomatal conductance, stomatal density and index, quantum efficiency, and biomass production, indicating the potential to develop more climate-change-resilient genotypes that can cope with predicted future climate change conditions. Elevated CO2 reduced some of the negative effects of water deficit through changes in water-use efficiency and light utilisation and reduced the negative impact of water deficit on biomass accumulation, but this was genotype-specific.

A survey was conducted of Indonesian cocoa farms to assess the extent of yield variation and factors associated with this variation. The survey of 120 farms during the course of 3 years encompassed four provinces in Sulawesi (South, South-East, West and Central), Western Sumatra, Lampung, East Java and West Papua. A high degree of yield variation was observed between farms, the average over 3 years ranged from 39 to 3586 kg ha−1. Overall, yields were greater on farms that were classified as ‘highly managed’, compared to ‘moderately’ and ‘less managed’. Seasonal variability in yields was generally greater in districts with a more pronounced dry season such as South Sulawesi and Lampung. Multiple regression analyses revealed particular husbandry practices that were linked with higher cocoa yields. Specifically, the use of inorganic fertilisers, application of fungicides against blackpod and weeding were all practices that were associated with higher yields. A positive association between rainfall and yield was observed for the years 2014/15 and 2015/16 but not 2016/17, which was a La Niña year (when rainfall totals were higher). Some of the farms surveyed were planted with cocoa at very low densities implying an opportunity for yield improvement through gap filling or replanting at higher densities (although it was noted that some farmers maintained lower planting densities due to the cultivation of companion crops). Given the smallholder status of most cocoa farms in Indonesia (mean area in this study was 0.71 ha) it is important that farmers are able to maximise returns from their land in order to maintain a livelihood. This study illustrated the potential for yield improvement on Indonesian cocoa farms through adoption of best agronomic practice.

The potential effect of climate change on regional suitability for cocoa cultivation is a serious economic concern for West Africa—especially for Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire, whose cocoa cultivation accounts for respectively ∼19% and ∼45% of world production. Here, we present a modelling and observational study of cocoa net primary productivity (NPP) in present day and future West African climates. Our analysis uses a data assimilation technique to parameterise a process-based land-surface model. The parameterisation is based on laboratory observations of cocoa, grown under both ambient and elevated CO2. Present day and end of 21st century cocoa cultivation scenarios are produced by driving the parameterised land-surface model with output from a high-resolution climate model. This represents a significant advance on previous work, because unlike the CMIP5 models, the high-resolution model used in this study accurately captures the observed precipitation seasonality in the cocoa-growing regions of West Africa—a key sensitivity for perennials like cocoa. We find that temperature is projected to increase significantly and precipitation is projected to increase slightly, although not in all parts of the region of interest. We find, furthermore, that the physiological effect of higher atmospheric CO2 concentration ameliorates the impacts of high temperature and variation in precipitation thereby reducing some of the negative impacts of climate change and maintaining NPP in West Africa, for the whole 21st Century, even under a high emissions scenario. Although NPP is an indicator of general vegetation condition, it is not equivalent to yield or bean quality. The study presented here is, nevertheless, a strong basis for further field and modelling studies of cultivation under elevated CO2 conditions.