No abstract

No abstract

Aim. Our research examined the predictive capabilities of mathematical models that are solely based on the expected goal statistics obtained from a publicly available database. Method. We collected match and expected goals data for 310 matches from three European Leagues (Bundesliga, La Liga, and Serie A). We created three probabilistic models based on the expected goals statistic and compared them with two well-established probabilistic models using binomial deviance, squared error, and profitability in the betting market as evaluation metrics. Results. Our best model adjusted the expected goal statistics for homefield advantage and outperformed the two probabilistic models used for comparison. Two of our models were profitable under certain betting conditions. Limitations. Our models explored a simplistic integration of expected goals into a Poisson based probabilistic model and did not include other contributing factors such as a team’s defensive prowess. The number of games simulated was also limited due to the premature closure of the European Leagues due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Conclusions. The use of a probabilistic model based solely on expected goals score statistic can provide some meaningful insight into forecasting the outcome of a football match and can develop useful betting strategies.

The implementation of evidence‐based psychotherapies often requires significant commitments of time and expense from mental health providers. Psychotherapy protocols with rapid and efficient training and supervision requirements may have higher levels of uptake in publicly funded clinics. Family‐focused therapy (FFT) is a 4‐month, 12‐session treatment for bipolar and psychosis patients consisting of psychoeducation, communication training, and problem‐solving skills training. In a pilot randomized trial, we compared two methods of training community clinicians in FFT: (a) high intensity (n = 24), consisting of a 6‐hour in‐person didactic workshop followed by telephone supervision for every session with training cases; or (b) low‐intensity training (n = 23), consisting of a 4‐hour online workshop covering the same material as the in‐person workshop followed by telephone supervision after every third session with training cases. Of 47 clinician participants, 18 (11 randomly assigned to high intensity, 7 to low) enrolled 34 patients with mood or psychotic disorders (mean age 16.5 ± 2.0 years; 44.1% female) in an FFT implementation phase. Expert supervisors rated clinicians’ fidelity to the FFT manual based on taped family sessions. We detected no differences in fidelity scores between clinicians in the two training conditions, nor did patients treated by clinicians in high‐ versus low‐intensity training differ in end‐of‐treatment depression or mania symptoms. Levels of parent/offspring conflict improved in both conditions. Although based on a pilot study, the results suggest that low‐intensity training of community clinicians in FFT is feasible and can result in rapid achievement of fidelity benchmarks without apparent loss of treatment efficacy.

Objectives: Family-focused therapy (FFT) is associated with reduced rates of mood episodes among youth at high risk for bipolar disorder (BD). In a randomized trial of FFT compared to a psychoeducation-only treatment (enhanced care, EC), we sought to determine if changes in psychosocial functioning mediate mood improvements among high-risk youth. Method: 119 youths with active mood symptoms and a family history of BD were randomized to either 4 months of FFT or EC. Participants were rated on mood symptom severity and provided self-ratings of psychosocial functioning across domains of family, social-emotional, and school functioning. Repeated measures mixed modeling and bootstrapped mediational analyses evaluated the effects of treatment conditions and psychosocial functioning on mood improvements immediately posttreatment and over 2 years of follow-up. Results: Youths in FFT reported greater improvements in family functioning over 24 months compared to those in EC, F(5, 76.8) = 3.1, p < .05. Improvements in family functioning partially mediated participants' improvements in depressive symptoms, B = −0.22, p < .01; 95% CI [−0.55, −0.02]. The effects of FFT versus EC on family functioning were stronger among youth with comorbid anxiety and externalizing disorders than among youth without these comorbid disorders. Conclusions: The findings suggest a temporal link between changes in youths' perceptions of family functioning and improvements in depressive symptoms among high-risk youth in FFT. Family conflict and cohesion are important treatment targets for youth who present with early signs of BD. Future studies should examine whether changes in observational measures of family interaction precede improvements in mood among high-risk youth.What is the public health significance of this article? This study found that family-focused therapy leads to reductions in depressive symptoms via improvements in family functioning among youth who are at high risk for bipolar disorder. These findings highlight the importance of intervening on the immediate family unit in order to improve mood symptoms among these youth.