Politička stabilnost u velikoj mjeri djeluje na ekonomske performanse određene zemlje. U ovom će se radu primjenom panel-modela sa slučajnim efektom pokazati da politička stabilnost ima znatan utjecaj na produktivnost rada mjerenu BDP-om po zaposlenom. Pritom će se politička stabilnost određene zemlje procjenjivati s pomoću indikatora političke stabilnosti i izostanka nasilja/terorizma, rizika državnog udara i indikatora državne legitimnosti. U uzorak je odabrano 11 postsocijalističkih zemlja Europske unije od 2000. do 2017. godine. Provedena analiza pokazuje da politička stabilnost ima bitan utjecaj na produktivnost rada u postsocijalističkim europskim zemljama te je robusnost rezultata dodatno potvrđena provođenjem analize pri alternativnim specifikacijama. S obzirom na to da se u postojećim radovima većinom nastojalo otkriti uzroke političke nestabilnosti i kako ih spriječiti, ovaj rad stavlja naglasak na posljedice političke nestabilnosti na produktivnost i gospodarstvo u cjelini.
This paper focuses on the analysis of business cycles in a group of 11 Emerging European economies. The objective of this paper is twofold. First, we aim to test which macro-financial indicators provide the earliest warning signals of impending recessions for the selected group of countries using the signal method. We also test whether financial or macroeconomic group of indicators are able to catch the recession signals earlier using the Mann Whitney U Test. Second, to correctly identify the predicting indicators that emit early signals of incoming recessions, we aim to precisely identify the points in time when the business cycles entered the phase of recession, i.e. to pinpoint the turning points of business cycles in Emerging European economies. We thus implement the Bry-Boschan algorithm, adjusted for the quarterly GDP time series, to identify the dates of recessions in a selected group of countries more precisely, thus offering a methodological contribution to the literature. Our results indicate that the conventional and the BBQ method of identifying recessions correspond to a large extent, but not entirely, thus justifying the use of more sophisticated methods of determining turning points of business cycles. Our analysis shows that financial indicators offer earlier warning signals of impending recessions than macroeconomic indicators. We find that the most precise indicators for early signaling of impending recessions contain five financial and two macroeconomic indicators. Namely, the slope of the yield curve on euro bonds and on treasury bonds, the current account balance to GDP ratio, the real estate price index, yield on 2-year treasury bonds, the coefficient of self-financing of commercial banks and TED interest spread.
Periods before the start of recessions are characterized by increased uncertainty and stress which are manifested by increase in alcohol consumption. The main idea behind this paper is that increased alcohol production follows this increase in consumption and thereby can be used as early warning indicator. The data was analysed through signal extraction approach that tests if specific indicator deviates significantly from its "normal" values and by doing so issues a warning signal about possible future recession. Analysis on production of three main alcohol types in four European countries shows good accuracy of indicators based on alcohol production but with significant inconsistency between countries. Inconsistency can be explained by alcoholic preference of specific country with indicators being far less precise in predicting recessions if they are based on least consumed alcohol type. Received results expand existing early warning methodology and give potential for further development by putting larger focus on human behaviour in predicting recessions. Also, these findings have important policy implications since early recognition of upcoming recession significantly aids in reducing its effects and duration.
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