The global burden of death and disability attributable to drug users, remains a significant threat to public health for both developed and developing countries. This paper present a new mathematical modelling framework to investigate the effects of drug use in the community. In our model the transmission process is considered as a social contact process between the susceptible individuals and drug users based on the epidemiology principles. An epidemic threshold value, ܴ , is proposed for the drug-using career. Sensitivity analysis is performed on ܴ , and it is then used to examine the stability of the system. A condition under which a backward bifurcation may exist is found, as are conditions that permit the existence of one or more endemic equilibria. A key result arising from this model is that prevention is indeed better than cure.
Drug abuse remains to be the global burden causing a large number of death and disability, it is now termed as a significant threat to public health for both developed and developing countries. This work presents a mathematical model as a new approach towards understanding and controlling drug abuse in Tanzania. Using next-generation matrix method an epidemic threshold value, is computed and used to establish condition for the existence and stability of stationary points. Using numerical simulation the dynamical behavior of the model is explored and the result shows the significant contribution by the rate of adequate contact between the susceptible individual and the drug user, and the rate of recovery of drug user after rehabilitation as the major factors or players that dictate the dynamics of the drug user population in the society. The model is finally analyzed to study the dynamical behavior of the drug abuse when control is applied, the result shows the drug users are minimized significantly. The result signifies the importance of early control of the drug abuse problem through the establishment of strict laws that will narrow the possibility of this bad practice in societies.
Drug abuse remains to be the global burden causing a large number of death and disability, it is now termed as a significant threat to public health for both developed and developing coun tries. This work presents a mathematical model as a new approach towards understanding and controlling the drug abuse in Tanzania. The mathematical model to study the effect of drug abuse in the society is developed and analyzed in this study. The model’s transmission process is considered as a social contact process between susceptible individuals and drug users based on the epidemiology principles. The model used the factors that were identified through feasi bility study as the significant factors that control the dynamics of drug abused population in the particular society. The model is analyzed using next generation matrix method the numberof new drug users that one drug user can produce in the entire period of abuse is computed and identifies as an epidemic threshold value, R0. Using R0 the condition for existence and stabil ity of stationary point is established. Using numerical simulation, the dynamical behavior of the model is explored and the result shows the significant contribution by the rate of adequate contact between the susceptible individual and the drug user, and the rate of recovery of drug user after rehabilitation as the major factors or players that dictate the dynamics of drug user population in the society. The model is finally analyzed to study the dynamical behavior of the drug abuse when control is applied, the result shows the drug users are minimized significantly. The result signifiesthe importance of early control of the drug abuse problem through establish ment of the strict laws that will narrow the possibility of this bad practice in societies. It is then vividly justified that, key result arising from this model is that prevention is indeed better than cure.
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