We use a relatively general intertemporal asset pricing model where housing services and consumption are non-separable to measure overvaluation of housing in relation to rents in Spain, the UK and the US. Part of the increase in real house prices during the late nineties can be seen as a return to equilibrium following some undershooting after previous price peaks. However, marked increases in house prices led to price-torent ratios above equilibrium by mid-2003 (around 30% above equilibrium in the UK, 20% in Spain and 10% in the US). Part of that overvaluation -particularly in Spain and the UK -may be attributable to the sluggishness of supply in the presence of large demand shocks in this market and/or the slow adjustment of observed rents.
This article presents general conditions under which it is possible to obtain asset pricing relations from the intertemporal optimal investment decision of the firm. Under the assumption of linear homogeneous production and adjustment cost functions (the Hayashi (1982) conditions), it is possible to establish, state by state, the equality between the return on investment and the market return of the financial claims issued by the firm. This result proves to be, in essence, robust to the consideration of very general constraints on investment and the inclusion of taxes.
Abstract. Arguing that total consumer wealth is unobservable, we invert the (approximate) consumption function to reconstruct, in a world with Kreps-Porteus generalized isoelastic preferences, (i) the wealth that supports the agents' observed consumption as an optimal outcome and (ii) the rate of return on the consumers' wealth portfolio. This allows us to (approximately) price assets solely as a function of their payoffs and of consumption-in both homoskedastic or heteroskedastic environments. We compare implied equilibrium returns on the wealth portfolio to observed stock market returns and gauge whether the stock market is a good proxy for unobserved aggregate wealth.
We estimate alternative price-to-rent ratios in the Spanish housing market by considering different stochastic discount factors in present value models similar to those used in the financial literature but where the higher rigidity that characterises this market is taken into account. We identify three robust across-model regularities: (i) the increase in the price-to-rent ratio since the late 1990s helped at first to restore equilibrium, (ii) further increases in house prices raised the ratio between 24% and 32% above equilibrium by 2004, although (iii) at that time the ratio was only around 2% above its short-term adjustment path towards a (new) long-run equilibrium.
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