Sustainable intensification of agriculture is one of the main strategies to provide global food security. However, its implementation raises enormous political, technological, and social challenges. Meeting these challenges will require, among other things, accurate information on the spatial and temporal patterns of agricultural land use and yield. Here, we investigate historical patterns of agricultural land use (1940-2012) and productivity (1990-2012) in Brazil using a new high-resolution (approximately 1 km(2) ) spatially explicit reconstruction. Although Brazilian agriculture has been historically known for its extensification over natural vegetation (Amazon and Cerrado), data from recent years indicate that extensification has slowed down and was replaced by a strong trend of intensification. Our results provide the first comprehensive historical overview of agricultural land use and productivity in Brazil, providing clear insights to guide future territorial planning, sustainable agriculture, policy, and decision-making.

BackgroundDengue is an increasing public health concern in Brazil. There is a need for an updated evaluation of the economic impact of dengue within the country. We undertook this multicenter study to evaluate the economic burden of dengue in Brazil.MethodsWe estimated the economic burden of dengue in Brazil for the years 2009 to 2013 and for the epidemic season of August 2012- September 2013. We conducted a multicenter cohort study across four endemic regions: Midwest, Goiania; Southeast, Belo Horizonte and Rio de Janeiro; Northeast: Teresina and Recife; and the North, Belem. Ambulatory or hospitalized cases with suspected or laboratory-confirmed dengue treated in both the private and public sectors were recruited. Interviews were scheduled for the convalescent period to ascertain characteristics of the dengue episode, date of first symptoms/signs and recovery, use of medical services, work/school absence, household spending (out-of-pocket expense) and income lost using a questionnaire developed for a previous cost study. We also extracted data from the patients’ medical records for hospitalized cases. Overall costs per case and cumulative costs were calculated from the public payer and societal perspectives. National cost estimations took into account cases reported in the official notification system (SINAN) with adjustment for underreporting of cases. We applied a probabilistic sensitivity analysis using Monte Carlo simulations with 90% certainty levels (CL).ResultsWe screened 2,223 cases, of which 2,035 (91.5%) symptomatic dengue cases were included in our study. The estimated cost for dengue for the epidemic season (2012–2013) in the societal perspective was US$ 468 million (90% CL: 349–590) or US$ 1,212 million (90% CL: 904–1,526) after adjusting for under-reporting. Considering the time series of dengue (2009–2013) the estimated cost of dengue varied from US$ 371 million (2009) to US$ 1,228 million (2013).ConclusionsThe economic burden associated with dengue in Brazil is substantial with large variations in reported cases and consequently costs reflecting the dynamic of dengue transmission.

The organophosphate temephos has been the main insecticide used against larvae of the dengue and yellow fever mosquito (Aedes aegypti) in Brazil since the mid-1980s. Reports of resistance date back to 1995; however, no systematic reports of widespread temephos resistance have occurred to date. As resistance investigation is paramount for strategic decision-making by health officials, our objective here was to investigate the spatial and temporal spread of temephos resistance in Ae. aegypti in Brazil for the last 12 years using discriminating temephos concentrations and the bioassay protocols of the World Health Organization. The mortality results obtained were subjected to spatial analysis for distance interpolation using semi-variance models to generate maps that depict the spread of temephos resistance in Brazil since 1999. The problem has been expanding. Since 2002-2003, approximately half the country has exhibited mosquito populations resistant to temephos. The frequency of temephos resistance and, likely, control failures, which start when the insecticide mortality level drops below 80%, has increased even further since 2004. Few parts of Brazil are able to achieve the target 80% efficacy threshold by 2010/2011, resulting in a significant risk of control failure by temephos in most of the country. The widespread resistance to temephos in Brazilian Ae. aegypti populations greatly compromise effective mosquito control efforts using this insecticide and indicates the urgent need to identify alternative insecticides aided by the preventive elimination of potential mosquito breeding sites.

In Western Bahia, one of the most active agricultural frontiers of the world, cropland area and irrigated area are increasing at fast rates, and water conflicts have been happening at least since 2010. This study makes a hydroclimatic analysis of the water resources in Western Bahia, from both supply and demand viewpoints. Time series of precipitation for the period 1980–2015 and river discharge for the period 1978–2015 are analyzed, indicating a significant reduction of up to 12% in rainfall since the 1980s, and a reduction in river discharge in all stations studied, in both the rainy season and the dry season. Combined with that, irrigated area has increased over 150-fold in 30 years, and in the most irrigated regions, has increased by 90% in the last eight years only. Seven regions in Western Bahia have been identified where the potential for water use conflicts is critical. Moreover, the combination of reduced availability and increased demand of water resources indicates that, if current trends are maintained, conflicts over water may become more frequent in the next years or decades. A short-term alternative to avoid such conflicts is to largely avoid irrigation during the months with low discharge. However, a monitoring system in which the availability and demand of water resources for irrigation are actually measured and monitored, is the safest path to provide water security to this region.

No abstract