BackgroundGlaciations were recurrent throughout the Quaternary and potentially shaped species genetic structure worldwide by affecting population dynamics. Here, we implemented a multi-model inference approach to recover the distribution dynamics and demographic history of a Neotropical savanna tree, Tabebuia aurea (Bignoniaceae). Exploring different algorithms and paleoclimatic simulations, we used ecological niche modelling to generate alternative hypotheses of potential demographic changes through the last glacial cycle and estimated genetic parameters using coalescent modelling.ResultsComparing predictions from demographic hypotheses with genetic parameters of modern populations, our findings revealed a likely scenario of population decline, with spatial displacement towards Northeast Brazil from the last glacial maximum to the mid-Holocene. Subsequently, populations expanded in response to the return of the climatically suitable conditions in Central-West Brazil. Nevertheless, a wide historical refugium across Central Brazil likely maintained large populations connected throughout time. The expected genetic signatures from such predicted distribution dynamics are also corroborated by spatial genetic structure observed in modern populations.ConclusionBy exploring uncertainties inherent in multiple working hypotheses, we have shown that multi-model inference is a fruitful and efficient approach to recover the nature, timing and geographical context of the Tabebuia aurea population dynamic in response to the Quaternary climate changes.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12862-014-0213-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

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Plants are one of the most vulnerable groups to fragmentation and habitat loss, that may affect community richness, abundance, functional traits, and genetic diversity. Here, we address the effects of landscape features on adaptive quantitative traits and evolutionary potential, and on neutral genetic diversity in populations of the Neotropical savanna tree Caryocar brasiliense. We sampled adults and juveniles in 10 savanna remnants within five landscapes. To obtain neutral genetic variation, we genotyped all individuals from each site using nine microsatellite loci. For adaptive traits we measured seed size and mass and grown seeds in nursery in completely randomized experimental design. We obtained mean, additive genetic variance (Va) and coefficient of variation (CVa%), which measures evolvability, for 17 traits in seedlings. We found that landscapes with higher compositional heterogeneity (SHDI) had lower evolutionary potential (CVa%) in leaf length (LL) and lower aboveground dry mass (ADM) genetic differentiation (QST). We also found that landscapes with higher SHDI had higher genetic diversity (He) and allelic richness (AR) in adults, and lower genetic differentiation (FST). In juveniles, SHDI was also positively related to AR. These results are most likely due to longer dispersal distance of pollen in landscapes with lower density of flowering individuals. Agricultural landscapes with low quality mosaic may be more stressful for plant species, due to the lower habitat cover (%), higher cover of monocropping (%) and other land covers, and edge effects. However, in landscapes with higher SHDI with high quality mosaic, forest nearby savanna habitat and the other environments may facilitate the movement or provide additional habitat and resources for seed disperses and pollinators, increasing gene flow and genetic diversity. Finally, despite the very recent agriculture expansion in Central Brazil, we found no time lag in response to habitat loss, because both adults and juveniles were affected by landscape changes.