This study evaluated the extent to which natural protected areas (NPAs) in Mexico have been effective for preventing land use/land cover change, considered as a major cause of other degradation processes. We developed an effectiveness index including NPA percentage of transformed areas (agriculture, induced vegetation, forestry plantations, and human settlements) in 2002, the rate and absolute extent of change in these areas (1993)(1994)(1995)(1996)(1997)(1998)(1999)(2000)(2001)(2002), the comparison between rates of change observed inside the NPA and in an equivalent surrounding area, and between the NPA and the state(s) in which it is located. We chose 69 terrestrial federal NPAs, decreed before 1997, that were larger than 1,000 ha, not urban/ reforested with non-native vegetation, not islands and not coastal strips, and estimated the extent of transformed areas using 1993 and 2002 land use/land cover maps. Over 54% of NPAs were effective, and were heterogeneously distributed by management categories: 65% of Biosphere Reserves, 53% of Flora and Fauna Protection Areas, and 45% of National Parks. 23% of NPAs were regarded as weakly effective, and the remaining 23% as non-effective. We recognize the importance of NPAs as a relevant conservation instrument, as half of NPAs analyzed (particularly biosphere reserves) prevented natural vegetation loss compared with their geographic context. Our results suggest that conservation based on NPAs in Mexico still faces significant challenges. Our approach can be expanded for evaluating the effectiveness of NPA in other regions, as land use/land cover maps are now available almost worldwide.

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Land use/land cover change (LULC) is a major threat to natural protected areas worldwide. This paper explores the relationships between four estimated LULC parameters for 17 Mexican biosphere reserves (BRs) for 1993-2002 on a GIS platform, and ten socioeconomic factors obtained from census data. These relationships were tested through linear correlations and multivariate analysis. BRs showed lower human demographic pressure, but higher population dispersion, social marginality, percentage of rain-fed agriculture area, and dependence upon agriculture and cattle compared to nationwide values. BRs also varied in their indigenous population, and showed cattle overpopulation, and low immigration and road density. Socioeconomic factors explained 87% of LULC variation. High population and road density, cattle overpopulation and low percentage indigenous population were related to percentage of transformed area (2002). Conversely, small population and road density, large proportion of indigenous population and high dependency on agriculture and cattle, were related to the rate of change in transformed area (1993)(1994)(1995)(1996)(1997)(1998)(1999)(2000)(2001)(2002). High human population growth and urban concentration occurred when BRs suffered higher LULC than their corresponding ecoregions. Including socioeconomic conditions prevailing in BRs and their influence on LULC in reserve management and rural development planning will improve strategies for the confluence of conservation and development goals.

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