Rosanna Peeling and colleagues describe their experience of introducing point-of-care testing to screen for syphilis in pregnant women living in low- and middle-income countries.

NCT02248558.

Discrete choice experiments (DCEs) are economic tools that elicit the stated preferences of respondents. Because of their increasing importance in informing the design of health products and services, it is critical to understand the extent to which DCEs give reliable predictions outside of the experimental context. We systematically reviewed the literature of published DCE studies comparing predictions to choices made in reality; we extracted individual-level data to estimate a bivariate mixed-effects model of pooled sensitivity and specificity. Eight studies met the inclusion criteria, and six of these gave sufficient data for inclusion in a meta-analysis. Pooled sensitivity and specificity estimates were 88% (95% CI 81, 92%) and 34% (95% CI 23, 46%), respectively, and the area under the SROC curve (AUC) was 0.60 (95% CI 0.55, 0.64). Results indicate that DCEs can produce reasonable predictions of health-related behaviors. There is a great need for future research on the external validity of DCEs, particularly empirical studies assessing predicted and revealed preferences of a representative sample of participants.

Background New WHO guidelines recommend ART initiation for HIV-positive persons with CD4 cell counts ≤500 cells/µL, a higher threshold than was previously recommended. Country decision makers must consider whether to further expand ART eligibility accordingly. Methods We used multiple independent mathematical models in four settings—South Africa, Zambia, India, and Vietnam—to evaluate the potential health impact, costs, and cost-effectiveness of different adult ART eligibility criteria under scenarios of current and expanded treatment coverage, with results projected over 20 years. Analyses considered extending eligibility to include individuals with CD4 ≤500 cells/µL or all HIV-positive adults, compared to the previous recommendation of initiation with CD4 ≤350 cells/µL. We assessed costs from a health system perspective, and calculated the incremental cost per DALY averted ($/DALY) to compare competing strategies. Strategies were considered ‘very cost-effective’ if the $/DALY was less than the country’s per capita gross domestic product (GDP; South Africa: $8040, Zambia: $1425, India: $1489, Vietnam: $1407) and ‘cost-effective’ if $/DALY was less than three times per capita GDP. Findings In South Africa, the cost per DALY averted of extending ART eligibility to CD4 ≤500 cells/µL ranged from $237 to $1691/DALY compared to 2010 guidelines; in Zambia, expanded eligibility ranged from improving health outcomes while reducing costs (i.e. dominating current guidelines) to $749/DALY. Results were similar in scenarios with substantially expanded treatment access and for expanding eligibility to all HIV-positive adults. Expanding treatment coverage in the general population was therefore found to be cost-effective. In India, eligibility for all HIV-positive persons ranged from $131 to $241/DALY and in Vietnam eligibility for CD4 ≤500 cells/µL cost $290/DALY. In concentrated epidemics, expanded access among key populations was also cost-effective. Interpretation Earlier ART eligibility is estimated to be very cost-effective in low- and middle-income settings, although these questions should be revisited as further information becomes available. Scaling-up ART should be considered among other high-priority health interventions competing for health budgets. Funding The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and World Health Organization

There are inefficiencies in current approaches to monitoring patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART) in sub-Saharan Africa. Patients typically attend clinics every 1–3 months for clinical assessment, with clinic costs being comparable with costs of drugs themselves, CD4 counts are measured every 6 months, yet patients are rarely switched to second-line therapies. To ensure sustainability of treatment programmes a transition to more cost-effective ART deliver is needed. In contrast to the CD4 count, measurement of the level of HIV RNA in plasma (“viral load”) provides a direct measure of current treatment effect. Viral load informed differentiated care is a means of tailoring care whereby those with suppressed viral load have less frequent clinical visits and attention is paid to those with unsuppressed viral load to promote adherence and timely switching to a second-line regimen. The most feasible approach in many countries to measure viral load is by collecting dried blood spot (DBS) samples for testing in regional laboratories, although there have been concerns over the sensitivity/specificity of DBS to define treatment failure and the delay in receiving results. We use modelling to synthesize available evidence and evaluate the cost-effectiveness of viral load-informed differentiated care, account for limitations of DBS. We find that viral load-informed differentiated care using DBS is expected to be cost-effective and is recommended as the strategy for patient monitoring, although further empirical evidence as the approach is rolled out would be of value. We also explore the potential benefits of future availability of point-of-care (POC) viral load tests.