Due to the different degrees of controls exerted by biological and geochemical processes, climate changes are suggested to uncouple biogeochemical C, N and P cycles, influencing biomass accumulation, decomposition and storage in terrestrial ecosystems. However, the possible extent of such disruption in grassland ecosystems remains unclear, especially in China’s steppes which have undergone rapid climate changes with increasing drought and warming predicted moving forward in these dryland ecosystems. Here, we assess how soil C-N-P stoichiometry is affected by climatic change along a 3500-km temperate climate transect in Inner Mongolia, China. Our results reveal that the soil from more arid and warmer sites are associated with lower soil organic C, total N and P. The ratios of both soil C:P and N:P decrease, but soil C:N increases with increasing aridity and temperature, indicating the predicted decreases in precipitation and warming for most of the temperate grassland region could lead to a soil C-N-P decoupling that may reduce plant growth and production in arid ecosystems. Soil pH, mainly reflecting long-term climate change in our sites, also contributes to the changing soil C-N-P stoichiometry, indicating the collective influences of climate and soil type on the shape of soil C-N-P balance.

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Manipulative experiments and observations along environmental gradients, the two most common approaches to evaluate the impacts of climate change on nutrient cycling, are generally assumed to produce similar results, but this assumption has rarely been tested. We did so by conducting a meta-analysis and found that soil nutrients responded differentially to drivers of climate change depending on the approach considered. Soil carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus concentrations generally decreased with water addition in manipulative experiments but increased with annual precipitation along environmental gradients. Different patterns were also observed between warming experiments and temperature gradients. Our findings provide evidence of inconsistent results and suggest that manipulative experiments may be better predictors of the causal impacts of short-term (months to years) climate change on soil nutrients but environmental gradients may provide better information for long-term correlations (centuries to millennia) between these nutrients and climatic features. Ecosystem models should consequently incorporate both experimental and observational data to properly assess the impacts of climate change on nutrient cycling.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.23255.001