The accurate evaluation of crash causal factors can provide fundamental information for effective transportation policy, vehicle design, and driver education. Naturalistic driving (ND) data collected with multiple onboard video cameras and sensors provide a unique opportunity to evaluate risk factors during the seconds leading up to a crash. This paper uses a National Academy of Sciences-sponsored ND dataset comprising 905 injurious and property damage crash events, the magnitude of which allows the first direct analysis (to our knowledge) of causal factors using crashes only. The results show that crash causation has shifted dramatically in recent years, with driver-related factors (i.e., error, impairment, fatigue, and distraction) present in almost 90% of crashes. The results also definitively show that distraction is detrimental to driver safety, with handheld electronic devices having high use rates and risk.D uring recent years, the percentage of crashes involving some type of driver error or impairment before the crash was thought to be as high as 94% (1). Factors such as vehicle failures, roadway design or condition, or environment composed lower crash percentages. Naturalistic driving studies (NDSs) offer a unique opportunity to study driver performance and behavior experienced in the real world with actual consequences and risks (2-4). The NDS research method developed at the Virginia Tech Transportation Institute (VTTI) involves equipping volunteer participants' vehicles with advanced, unobtrusive instrumentation (e.g., cameras, sensors, radar) that automatically and continuously collects driving parameters-including speed, time to collision, global positioning system (GPS) location, acceleration, and eye glance behavior-from key-on to key-off (2, 5). The recently completed Second Strategic Highway Research Program Naturalistic Driving Study (SHRP 2 NDS), sponsored by the Transportation Research Board (TRB) of the National Academy of Sciences (NAS), is the largest NDS of its kind, capturing more than 35 million miles of continuous naturalistic driving data and 2 petabytes (PB) of video, kinematic, and audio data from more than 3,500 participants (5).NDSs provide insight into the factors that cause crashes, giving researchers the opportunity to observe actual driver behavior and to accurately understand drivers' performance during the minutes or seconds leading up to a crash (6, 7). However, previous NDSs captured a relatively small number of crashes (2,8). To obtain a statistically valid sample of crash factors in earlier NDSs, surrogate measures (e.g., near-crash events) were integrated into analyses. Near-crashes are operationally defined as having the observable factors that could lead to a crash, with one difference present: the performance of a successful evasive maneuver. Although previous studies used near-crashes as a surrogate for estimating crash risk, the accuracy and validity of combining crashes and near-crashes to estimate driver risk are just beginning to be understood (9). With the com...

BACKGROUND Distracted driving attributable to the performance of secondary tasks is a major cause of motor vehicle crashes both among teenagers who are novice drivers and among adults who are experienced drivers. METHODS We conducted two studies on the relationship between the performance of secondary tasks, including cell-phone use, and the risk of crashes and near-crashes. To facilitate objective assessment, accelerometers, cameras, global positioning systems, and other sensors were installed in the vehicles of 42 newly licensed drivers (16.3 to 17.0 years of age) and 109 adults with more driving experience. RESULTS During the study periods, 167 crashes and near-crashes among novice drivers and 518 crashes and near-crashes among experienced drivers were identified. The risk of a crash or near-crash among novice drivers increased significantly if they were dialing a cell phone (odds ratio, 8.32; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.83 to 24.42), reaching for a cell phone (odds ratio, 7.05; 95% CI, 2.64 to 18.83), sending or receiving text messages (odds ratio, 3.87; 95% CI, 1.62 to 9.25), reaching for an object other than a cell phone (odds ratio, 8.00; 95% CI, 3.67 to 17.50), looking at a roadside object (odds ratio, 3.90; 95% CI, 1.72 to 8.81), or eating (odds ratio, 2.99; 95% CI, 1.30 to 6.91). Among experienced drivers, dialing a cell phone was associated with a significantly increased risk of a crash or near-crash (odds ratio, 2.49; 95% CI, 1.38 to 4.54); the risk associated with texting or accessing the Internet was not assessed in this population. The prevalence of high-risk attention to secondary tasks increased over time among novice drivers but not among experienced drivers. CONCLUSIONS The risk of a crash or near-crash among novice drivers increased with the performance of many secondary tasks, including texting and dialing cell phones. (Funded by the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development and the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration.)

No abstract

Naturalistic driving is an innovative method for investigating driver behavior and traffic safety. However, as the number of crashes observed in naturalistic driving studies is typically small, crash surrogates are needed. A study evaluated the use of near crashes as a surrogate measure for assessment of the safety impact of driver behaviors and other risk factors. Two metrics, the precision and bias of risk estimation, were used to assess whether near crashes could be combined with crashes. The principles and exact conditions for improved precision and unbiased estimation were proposed and applied to data from the 100-Car Naturalistic Driving Study. The analyses indicated that a positive relationship exists between the frequencies of contributing factors for crashes and for near crashes. The study also indicated that analyses based on combined crash and near-crash data consistently underestimate the risk of contributing factors compared to use of crash data alone. At the same time, the precision of the estimation will increase. This consistent pattern allows investigators to identify true high-risk behaviors while qualitatively assessing potential bias. In summary, the study concluded that the use of near crashes as a crash surrogate provides definite benefit when naturalistic studies are not large enough to generate sufficient numbers of crashes for statistical analysis.

No abstract