Reducing the environmental impact is a great challenge for the aviation industry. However, the difficulty to anticipate future developments combined with long product lifecycles make strategy definition for aviation stakeholders challenging. This paper therefore presents a foresight project of a joint study by Airbus, Technical University of Munich, and Bauhaus Luftfahrt. The methodology uses a scenario approach to develop three alternative scenarios. They represent future situations of the aviation world in the year 2025 with focus on environmental topics. Driving factors of influence for the future development are identified, for instance, the world economy, environmental regulations, or the passenger's perception of aviation. Finally, strategic implications for airlines and aircraft manufacturers and possible fields of cooperation are discussed within the scenarios. Aircraft fleet renewals, for example, are considered as the most important step for airlines in all three scenarios. Sustainable fuels are not expected to have a significant contribution until 2025. I. Topic MotivationHE transport sector, in general, undoubtedly has a considerable impact on our environment. According to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), CO2 emissions caused by transport represent 23% of man-made CO2 emissions globally and 30% in OECD countries. 1 Reducing transportation's negative impacts on the environment thus is a crucial goal, e.g. for political institutions and the transportation industry. Aviation, more specifically, is responsible for around 2% of the total man-made CO2 emissions worldwide. 2 Apart from CO2 emissions further topics are of relevance for the aviation industry such as other gaseous emissions or local air quality and noise emissions in the vicinity of airports.These challenges are intensified by the comparatively high visibility of aviation in the public perception. Many airports face concerns and opposition to different degrees, e.g. by residents, due to the airport's environmental impact. In Europe, for instance, this is true for existing airports and for intended expansion projects in particular. Effective strategies are therefore required to enable sustainable growth for the aviation industry without negatively impacting today's quality of life or depleting the resources needed in the future. Consequently, efforts to minimize aviation's environmental impact play a major role in aircraft and engine design and manufacturing. Furthermore, aircraft operations are examined in order to reduce their environmental impact.
Purpose-The paper aims to assess the potential of aircraft operation from city centres to achieve shortened travel times and the involved aircraft design process. Design/methodology/approach-The paper describes the methodical approach and iterative procedure of the design process. An assessment of potential technologies is conducted to provide the required enhancements to fulfil the constraints following an inner-city operation. Operational procedures were analysed to reduce the noise propagation through flight path optimization. Furthermore a ground based assisted takeoff system was conceived to lower required takeoff field length and to prevent engine sizing just for the takeoff case. Cabin design optimization for a fast turnaround has been conducted to ensure a wide utilization spectrum. The results prove the feasibility of an aircraft developed for inner-city operation. Findings-A detailed concept for a 60 passenger single aisle aircraft is proposed for an Entry-Into-Service year 2040 with a design range of 1,500 nautical miles for a load factor of 90 %. Although the design for STOL and low noise operation had to be traded partly with cruise efficiency, a noteworthy reduction in fuel burn per passenger and nautical mile was achieved against current aircraft. Practical implications-The findings will contribute to the evaluation of the feasibility and impact of the Flightpath 2050 goal of a four hour door-to-door by providing a feasible but ambitious example. Furthermore, it highlights possible bottlenecks and problems faced, when realizing this goal. Originality/value-The paper draws its value from the consideration of the overall sizing effects at aircraft level and from a holistic view on an inner-city airport/aircraft concept.
Noise emissions in the vicinity of airports are a major challenge regarding the future of aviation. In this work we present the development of a framework to assess the impacts on future noise situations at the multi-event level. The framework at its top-level consists of three main areas: Modeling future airport flight plans, modeling aircraft noise at the vehicle level, and modeling aircraft noise at the airport level, which makes use of the Aviation Environmental Design Tool (AEDT). This paper focuses on airport flight plan modeling that derives future flight plans from a given flight plan considering user-specific scenario input. Therein, firstly, air traffic growth is considered. Secondly, the retirement of aircraft is considered by analyzing the age distribution of the current world aircraft fleet and by applying retirement curves for nine aircraft clusters. Thirdly, aircraft introduction is considered allowing for the precise definition of aircraft fleet composition to enter the fleet in future years. Fourthly, a simple capacity module considers airport capacity constraints. The framework does not aim at forecasting actual future flight plans or absolute noise levels, but aims for relative scenario comparisons for the purpose of impact assessments. A use case applies the developed flight plan model to Munich Airport.
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