To support the assessments of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), the IPBES Expert Group on Scenarios and Models is carrying out an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized scenarios (BES-SIM). The goals of BES-SIM are (1) to project the global impacts of land-use and climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem services (i.e., nature's contributions to people) over the coming decades, compared to the 20th century, using a set of common metrics at multiple scales, and (2) to identify model uncertainties and research gaps through the comparisons of projected biodiversity and ecosystem services across models. BES-SIM uses three scenarios combining specific Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) -SSP1xRCP2.6, SSP3xRCP6.0, SSP5xRCP8.6 -to explore a wide range of land-use change and climate change futures. This paper describes the rationale for scenario selection, the process of harmonizing input data for land use, based on the second phase of the Land Use Harmonization Project (LUH2), and climate, the biodiversity and ecosystem services models used, the core simulations carried out, the harmonization of the model output metrics, and the treatment of uncertainty. The results of this collaborative modeling project will support the ongoing global assessment of IPBES, strengthen ties between IPBES and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios and modeling processes, advise the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) on its development of a post-2020 strategic plans and conservation goals, and inform the development of a new generation of nature-centred scenarios.

Although people have modified the world around us throughout human history, the 'Great Acceleration' has seen drivers such as land conversion, exploitation of natural populations, species introductions, pollution and human-induced climate change placing biodiversity under increasing pressure. In this paper we examine 1) how terrestrial species communities have been impacted over the last thousand years of human development and 2) how plausible futures defined by alternative socio-economic scenarios are expected to impact species communities in the future. We use the PREDICTS (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems) database to model impacts of land-use change and human population on local species richness, community abundance, and biodiversity intactness using a mixed-effects modelling structure. Historical impacts are inferred through projection of model results onto maps of historical land use, provided by the land-use harmonization project, and gridded human population density (HYDE 3.1). Future impacts are explored using the Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP) scenarios. These scenarios detail five plausible global futures based upon socio-economic factors such as wealth, population, education, technology, and reliance on fossil fuels, and can be combined with Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios to consider climate mitigation strategies. We project model results onto the gridded outputs of six SSP/RCP scenario combinations: SSP1/RCP2.6, SSP2/RCP4.5, SSP3/RCP7.0, SSP4/RCP3.4, SSP4/RCP6.0, and SSP5/RCP8.5. Historical trend lines show that most losses in local biodiversity are relatively recent, with 75% of all loss in both abundance-based Biodiversity Intactness Index and species richness occurring post-1800. Stark regional differences emerge in all future scenarios, with biodiversity in African regions undergoing greater losses than Oceania, North America and the European regions. Although climate change is expected to have severe detrimental impacts to biodiversity -which are not quantified in these results -it is important to consider how the climate change mitigation itself may also impact biodiversity. Our results suggest that strong climate change mitigation through biofuel production will detrimentally impact biodiversity: SSP4/RCP3.4 (with high biofuel mitigation) is predicted to see two times the decrease in abundance-based biodiversity intactness and three times the decrease in local species richness between 2015-2100 as is predicted for SSP4/RCP6.0 (with lower levels of mitigation). SSP4/RCP3.4 forecasts the greatest impact to average local species richness of all the SSP/RCP combinations with an average loss of 13% of local species richness projected to have occurred by 2100. SSP3/RCP7.0 -a scenario describing a globally segregated, and economically protectionist future with low climate change mitigation -has the worst impacts on abundance-based biodiversity intactness with an average loss of 26% of intactness by 2100. However, a brighter future...

The University of Guayaquil, which shares the same name as the city where it is located, faces the challenge of transforming its image for the XXI century. It was deemed necessary to identify details about the urban evolution of the historic link with the city, in relation to the changes produced by the project’s siting and its direct area of influence. The goal is to integrate the main university campus within a framework which guarantees sustainability and allows innovation in the living lab. To achieve this, the action research method was applied, focused on participation and the logic framework. For the diagnosis, proposal, and management model, integrated working groups were organized with internal users such as professors, students, and university authorities, and external actors such as residents, the local business community, Guayaquil city council, and the Governorate of Guayas. As result of the diagnosis, six different analysis dimensions were established which correspond to the new urban agenda for the future campus: compactness, inclusiveness, resilience, sustainability, safety and participation. As a proposal, the urban design integrates the analysis dimensions whose financing and execution are given by the Town Hall, at the same time the Governorate integrates the campus with its network of community police headquarters.

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