A new method for modeling heat flux shows that the upper crust contributes up to 70% of the Antarctic Peninsula's subglacial heat flux and that heat flux values are more variable at smaller spatial resolutions than geophysical methods can resolve. Results indicate a higher heat flux on the east and south of the Peninsula (mean 81 mW m−2) where silicic rocks predominate, than on the west and north (mean 67 mW m−2) where volcanic arc and quartzose sediments are dominant. While the data supports the contribution of heat‐producing element‐enriched granitic rocks to high heat flux values, sedimentary rocks can be of comparative importance dependent on their provenance and petrography. Models of subglacial heat flux must utilize a heterogeneous upper crust with variable radioactive heat production if they are to accurately predict basal conditions of the ice sheet. Our new methodology and data set facilitate improved numerical model simulations of ice sheet dynamics.

No abstract

The evolution equation of potential temperature has to date been treated as an approximation to the oceanic version of the first law of thermodynamics. That is, oceanographers have regarded the advection and diffusion of potential temperature as the advection and diffusion of ''heat.'' However, the nonconservative source terms that arise in the evolution equation for potential temperature are estimated to be two orders of magnitude larger than the corresponding source terms for Conservative Temperature. In this paper the nonconservative source terms of potential temperature, Conservative Temperature, and entropy are derived for a stratified turbulent fluid, then quantified using the output of a coarse-resolution ocean model and compared to the rate of dissipation of mechanical energy, epsilon. It is shown that the error incurred in ocean models by assuming that Conservative Temperature is 100% conservative is approximately 120 times smaller than the corresponding error for potential temperature and at least 1200 times smaller than the corresponding error for entropy. Furthermore, the error in assuming that Conservative Temperature is 100% conservative is approximately 6 times smaller than the error in ignoring epsilon. Hence Conservative Temperature can be quite accurately regarded as a conservative variable and can be treated as being proportional to the ''heat content'' per unit mass of seawater, and therefore it should now be used in place of potential temperature in physical oceanography, including as the prognostic temperature variable in ocean models.

The AIS is an important component of the global climate system. Human activities have caused the atmosphere and especially the oceans to warm. However, the full effect of human caused climate change on the AIS has not currently been realised because the ice sheet responds on a range of timescales and to many different Earth processes. Modern observations show that West Antarctica has been melting at an accelerating rate since the 2000s, while the data for East Antarctica are less clear. Environmental records preserve the history of the climate and AIS, which extend beyond the instrumental record, and reveal how the AIS responded to past climate warming. Estimates of how much the AIS will contribute to sea-level rise by the year 2100 have changed as a result of new information on how the AIS evolved in the past, and research into the interactions between the ice sheet, solid Earthatmosphere and ocean systems. This review brings together our knowledge of the major processes and feedbacks affecting the AIS, and the evidence for how the ice sheet changed since the Pliocene. We consider the future estimates and consequences of global sea-level rise from melting of the AIS, and highlight priority research areas.

Abstract. The microstructure of polycrystalline ice evolves under prolonged deformation, leading to anisotropic patterns of crystal orientations. The response of this material to applied stresses is not adequately described by the ice flow relation most commonly used in large-scale ice sheet models – the Glen flow relation. We present a preliminary assessment of the implementation in the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) of a computationally efficient, empirical, scalar, constitutive relation which addresses the influence of the dynamically steady-state flow-compatible induced anisotropic crystal orientation patterns that develop when ice is subjected to the same stress regime for a prolonged period – sometimes termed tertiary flow. We call this the ESTAR flow relation. The effect on ice flow dynamics is investigated by comparing idealised simulations using ESTAR and Glen flow relations, where we include in the latter an overall flow enhancement factor. For an idealised embayed ice shelf, the Glen flow relation overestimates velocities by up to 17 % when using an enhancement factor equivalent to the maximum value prescribed in the ESTAR relation. Importantly, no single Glen enhancement factor can accurately capture the spatial variations in flow across the ice shelf generated by the ESTAR flow relation. For flow line studies of idealised grounded flow over varying topography or variable basal friction – both scenarios dominated at depth by bed-parallel shear – the differences between simulated velocities using ESTAR and Glen flow relations depend on the value of the enhancement factor used to calibrate the Glen flow relation. These results demonstrate the importance of describing the deformation of anisotropic ice in a physically realistic manner, and have implications for simulations of ice sheet evolution used to reconstruct paleo-ice sheet extent and predict future ice sheet contributions to sea level.

Future physical and chemical changes to the ocean are likely to significantly affect the distribution and productivity of many marine species. Tuna are of particular importance in the tropical Pacific, as they contribute significantly to the livelihoods, food and economic security of island states. Changes in water properties and circulation will impact on tuna larval dispersal, preferred habitat distributions and the trophic systems that support tuna populations throughout the region. Using recent observations and ocean projections from the CMIP3 and preliminary results from CMIP5 climate models, we document the projected changes to ocean temperature, salinity, stratification and circulation most relevant to distributions of tuna. Under a business-as-usual emission scenario, projections indicate a surface intensified warming in the upper 400 m and a large expansion of the western Pacific Warm Pool,

No abstract

No abstract