We develop a quantitative framework for understanding the class of wicked problems that emerge at the intersections of natural, social, and technological complex systems. Wicked problems reflect our incomplete understanding of interdependent global systems and the systemic risk they pose; such problems escape solutions because they are often ill-defined, and thus mis-identified and under-appreciated by communities of problem-solvers. While there are well-documented benefits to tackling boundary-crossing problems from various viewpoints, the integration of diverse approaches can nevertheless contribute confusion around the collective understanding of the core concepts and feasible solutions. We explore this paradox by analyzing the development of both scholarly (social) and topical (cognitive) communities — two facets of knowledge production studies here that contribute towards the evolution of knowledge in and around a problem, termed a knowledge trajectory — associated with three wicked problems: deforestation, invasive species, and wildlife trade. We posit that saturation in the dynamics of social and cognitive diversity growth is an indicator of reduced uncertainty in the evolution of the comprehensive knowledge trajectory emerging around each wicked problem. Informed by comprehensive bibliometric data capturing both social and cognitive dimensions of each problem domain, we thereby develop a framework that assesses the stability of knowledge trajectory dynamics as an indicator of wickedness associated with conceptual and solution uncertainty. As such, our results identify wildlife trade as a wicked problem that may be difficult to address given recent instability in its knowledge trajectory.

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Yosemite National Park is a popular tourist destination with high visitation levels that have increased throughout the summer season over the past several decades. Like with other protected areas, high visitation levels pose challenges for coordinating resources, infrastructural capacity, and visitor experiences. Use limits, including rationing vehicle entry at gates by reservation, are one possible strategy to manage visitation levels. After an initial full closure, the park chose to operationalize a multiphased permit system for day-use and overnight entry over the course of the pandemic in accordance with local and national guidelines for operational safety. While park closures and other entry restrictions have been common in recent years due to wildland fires and other natural hazards, the pandemic-related entry limits represent a nearly yearlong experiment. The prolonged entry ration along with restrictions to group activities has limited visitation and potentially reduced transmission of the novel coronavirus. We review the per capita COVID-19 case count in surrounding counties given the flow of tourism from outside the region, assess the changes in access to the park with the novel reservation system, compare monthly visitation during the 2020 use limits with prior decadal averages, detail how high visitation levels and crowding persist, and review the Park’s plans for an ongoing day-use permit system. We conclude with the ongoing challenges managers face in light of continued high visitation. Readers will be able to debate the efficacy of use limits and what may be a sustainable level of visitation for the park.

This paper addresses the important question of how national research systems can support the implementation of the United Nations 17 sustainable development goals (SDGs) set out in the 2030 agenda. Much attention on this topic has so far coalesced around understanding and measuring possible synergies and trade-offs that emerge in the SDGs. We contribute to this discussion by arguing that it is necessary to move from a focus on system interaction towards system transformation. A conceptual approach is presented based on the notion that research that "builds bridges" between science and technology and the social and environmental pillars of sustainable development can more fully support simultaneous achievement of the SDGs and thus be transformational. This proposition is put to the test empirically through a study of the Mexican research system using methods from bibliometrics and social network analysis. Our results can help to provide a diagnostic of how research systems are approaching SDGs and where potential exists for transformative research.

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