No abstract

Hurricane-intensity forecast improvements currently lag the progress achieved for hurricane tracks. Integrated ocean observations and simulations during hurricane Irene (2011) reveal that the wind-forced two-layer circulation of the stratified coastal ocean, and resultant shear-induced mixing, led to significant and rapid ahead-of-eye-centre cooling (at least 6 °C and up to 11 °C) over a wide swath of the continental shelf. Atmospheric simulations establish this cooling as the missing contribution required to reproduce Irene's accelerated intensity reduction. Historical buoys from 1985 to 2015 show that ahead-of-eye-centre cooling occurred beneath all 11 tropical cyclones that traversed the Mid-Atlantic Bight continental shelf during stratified summer conditions. A Yellow Sea buoy similarly revealed significant and rapid ahead-of-eye-centre cooling during Typhoon Muifa (2011). These findings establish that including realistic coastal baroclinic processes in forecasts of storm intensity and impacts will be increasingly critical to mid-latitude population centres as sea levels rise and tropical cyclone maximum intensities migrate poleward.

Inferred from the satellite and in situ hydrographic data from the 1990s and 2000s, the Kuroshio intrusion into the South China Sea (SCS) had a weakening trend over the past two decades. Associated with the weakened Kuroshio intrusion, the Kuroshio loop and eddy activity southwest of Taiwan became weaker, whereas the water above the salinity minimum became less saline in the northern SCS. The sea surface height southwest of Taiwan increased at a slower rate compared to other regions of the SCS because of the weakened Kuroshio intrusion. Simulations using the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) Pacific model show that the strength of the Kuroshio intrusion into the SCS decreased from 1993 to 2010 with a negative trend, −0.24 sverdrups (Sv) yr−1 (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1), in the total Luzon Strait transport (LST). Although wind-induced Ekman transport through the Luzon Strait became weaker, the magnitude at 0.001 Sv yr−1 was too small to compensate for the negative trend of the LST. On the other hand, the piling up of the water induced by monsoon winds was an important mechanism for changing the pressure gradient across the Luzon Strait and eventually affecting the LST. The sea level gradient between the western Pacific and the SCS had a negative trend, −0.10 cm yr−1, corresponding to a negative trend in the geostrophic transport at −0.20 Sv yr−1. The Kuroshio transport east of Luzon Island also had a negative trend, which might also be linked to the weakening Kuroshio intrusion.