Background: Associations between community-level risk factors and COVID-19 incidence are used to identify vulnerable subpopulations and target interventions, but the variability of these associations over time remains largely unknown. We evaluated variability in the associations between community-level predictors and COVID-19 case incidence in 351 cities and towns in Massachusetts from March to October 2020. Methods: Using publicly available sociodemographic, occupational, environmental, and mobility datasets, we developed mixed-effect, adjusted Poisson regression models to depict associations between these variables and town-level COVID-19 case incidence data across five distinct time periods. We examined town-level demographic variables, including z-scores of percent Black, Latinx, over 80 years and undergraduate students, as well as factors related to occupation, housing density, economic vulnerability, air pollution (PM2.5), and institutional facilities.Results: Associations between key predictor variables and town-level incidence varied across the five time periods. We observed reductions over time in the association with percentage Black residents (IRR=1.12 CI=(1.12-1.13) in spring, IRR=1.01 CI=(1.00-1.01) in fall). The association with number of long-term care facility beds per capita also decreased over time (IRR=1.28 CI=(1.26-1.31) in spring, IRR=1.07 CI=(1.05-1.09)in fall). Controlling for other factors, towns with higher percentages of essential workers experienced elevated incidence of COVID-19 throughout the pandemic (e.g., IRR=1.30 CI=(1.27-1.33) in spring, IRR=1.20, CI=(1.17-1.22) in fall). Towns with higher percentages of Latinx residents also had sustained elevated incidence over time (e.g., IRR=1.19 CI=(1.18-1.21) in spring, IRR=1.14 CI=(1.13-1.15) in fall). Conclusions: Town-level COVID-19 risk factors vary with time. In Massachusetts, racial (but not ethnic) disparities in COVID-19 incidence have decreased over time, perhaps indicating greater success in risk mitigation in selected communities. Our approach can be used to evaluate effectiveness of public health interventions and target specific mitigation efforts on the community level.
Background Associations between community-level risk factors and COVID-19 incidence have been used to identify vulnerable subpopulations and target interventions, but the variability of these associations over time remains largely unknown. We evaluated variability in the associations between community-level predictors and COVID-19 case incidence in 351 cities and towns in Massachusetts from March to October 2020. Methods Using publicly available sociodemographic, occupational, environmental, and mobility datasets, we developed mixed-effect, adjusted Poisson regression models to depict associations between these variables and town-level COVID-19 case incidence data across five distinct time periods from March to October 2020. We examined town-level demographic variables, including population proportions by race, ethnicity, and age, as well as factors related to occupation, housing density, economic vulnerability, air pollution (PM2.5), and institutional facilities. We calculated incidence rate ratios (IRR) associated with these predictors and compared these values across the multiple time periods to assess variability in the observed associations over time. Results Associations between key predictor variables and town-level incidence varied across the five time periods. We observed reductions over time in the association with percentage of Black residents (IRR = 1.12 [95%CI: 1.12–1.13]) in early spring, IRR = 1.01 [95%CI: 1.00–1.01] in early fall) and COVID-19 incidence. The association with number of long-term care facility beds per capita also decreased over time (IRR = 1.28 [95%CI: 1.26–1.31] in spring, IRR = 1.07 [95%CI: 1.05–1.09] in fall). Controlling for other factors, towns with higher percentages of essential workers experienced elevated incidences of COVID-19 throughout the pandemic (e.g., IRR = 1.30 [95%CI: 1.27–1.33] in spring, IRR = 1.20 [95%CI: 1.17–1.22] in fall). Towns with higher proportions of Latinx residents also had sustained elevated incidence over time (IRR = 1.19 [95%CI: 1.18–1.21] in spring, IRR = 1.14 [95%CI: 1.13–1.15] in fall). Conclusions Town-level COVID-19 risk factors varied with time in this study. In Massachusetts, racial (but not ethnic) disparities in COVID-19 incidence may have decreased across the first 8 months of the pandemic, perhaps indicating greater success in risk mitigation in selected communities. Our approach can be used to evaluate effectiveness of public health interventions and target specific mitigation efforts on the community level.
Adolescents do not achieve recommended levels of physical activity. Crime is believed to be a barrier to physical activity among youth, but findings are inconsistent. This study compares the spatial distribution of crime incidences and moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) among adolescents in Massachusetts between 2011 and 2012, and examines the correlation between crime and MVPA. Eighty adolescents provided objective physical activity (accelerometer) and location (Global Positioning Systems) data. Crime report data were obtained from the city police department. Data were mapped using geographic information systems, and crime and MVPA densities were calculated using kernel density estimations. Spearman’s correlation tested for associations between crime and MVPA. Overall, 1,694 reported crimes and 16,702 minutes of MVPA were included in analyses. A strong positive correlation was present between crime and adolescent MVPA (ρ=0.72, p<0.0001). Crime remained positively associated with MVPA in locations falling within the lowest quartile (ρ=0.43, p<0.0001) and highest quartile (ρ=0.32, p<0.0001) of crime density. This study found a strong positive association between crime and adolescent MVPA, despite research suggesting the opposite relationship. This counterintuitive finding may be explained by the logic of a common destination: neighborhood spaces which are desirable destinations and promote physical activity may likewise attract crime.
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