We present a fast and accurate computational method for solving and estimating a class of dynamic programming models with discrete and continuous choice variables. The solution method we develop for structural estimation extends the endogenous grid-point method (EGM) to discrete-continuous (DC) problems. Discrete choices can lead to kinks in the value functions and discontinuities in the optimal policy rules, greatly complicating the solution of the model. We show how these problems are ameliorated in the presence of additive choice-specific independent and identically distributed extreme value taste shocks that are typically interpreted as "unobserved state variables" in structural econometric applications, or serve as "random noise" to smooth out kinks in the value functions in numerical applications. We present Monte Carlo experiments that demonstrate the reliability and efficiency of the DC-EGM algorithm and the associated maximum likelihood estimator for structural estimation of a life-cycle model of consumption with discrete retirement decisions.Fedor Iskhakov
We develop and simulate a stochastic lifecycle model to investigate optimal annuity purchases at retirement. Retirees can invest in risky assets, purchase fairly priced immediate or deferred lifetime annuities, and are eligible for a targeted safety net pension. We match baseline parameters to current Australian settings and conduct scenario analyses over a wide range of individual preferences and financial market outcomes. Except where individuals need to insure a consumption floor, both immediate and deferred annuity purchases are largely crowded out by the means‐tested public pension. Welfare losses caused by zero annuitisation are small compared with the losses caused by completely annuitising all savings, particularly if wealth at retirement is low. Decumulation policy should ensure individuals are well informed of the insurance value of annuities and accommodate diverse choices.
We investigate the role of individual capability and effort in the management of retirement ruin. In an experimental setting, we analyze how 854 defined contribution (DC) plan members reallocated wealth between a lifetime annuity and a phased withdrawal account when we increased the risk of exhausting the phased withdrawal account before the end of life. We find that more numerate individuals who put effort into understanding product features chose more longevity insurance at higher ruin risks. Financially literate members were more likely to show understanding of the product features, but general financial literacy did not directly improve ruin risk management. Initiatives aiming to help DC members understand income stream products at the time of the decision are warranted.
W e explore how individuals assess the quality of financial advice they receive and how they form judgments about advisers. Using an incentivized discrete choice experiment, we show that first impressions matter: consumers more often follow advisers who dispense good advice before bad. We demonstrate how clients' opinions of adviser quality can be manipulated by using an easily replicated confirmation strategy that depends on the quality of the advice and the difficulty and order of the advice topics. Our results also reveal how clients benefit from their own past experience and how they use professional credentials to guide their choices.Data, as supplemental material, are available at https://doi.
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