Using a and a unique set of Italian non-listed Unlikely to Pay (UTP) positions, that consist in the phase that precedes the insolvency but where it is still possible for the company to succeed in restructuring, this paper aims to analyze the relationships between corporate governance characteristics and financial distress status. We compare the performance of corporate governance variables in predicting corporate defaults, using both the Logit and Random Forest models, which previous researchers have deemed to be the most efficient machine learning techniques. Our results show that the use of corporate governance variables – especially with regards to CEO renewal and stability in the composition of the board of directors – increases the accuracy of the Random Forest technique and influences the success of the turnaround process. This paper also confirms the Random Forest technique’s ability to significantly outperform the Logit model in terms of accuracy.
Investors are increasingly concerned with the sustainability of firms and their impact on global development, resulting in a rise in Socially Responsible Investing (SRI) that considers environmental, social, and governance (ESG) factors. Integrating sustainability into company strategies can affect various aspects of an organization, including IPOs (initial public offerings). Given the growing importance of ESG information disclosure, this study wants to examine the potential effect of an ESG report disclosure on IPO performance, since there are not studies focused on analyzing how ESG factors and IPO performance are correlated. The purpose of this study is to examine how ESG disclosure affects IPO underpricing and increases transparency for stakeholders to reduce information asymmetry. This study explores the impact of disclosing ESG information on IPO underpricing using a sample of 100 European IPOs from 2017 to 2021, with 50 firms disclosing an ESG report prior to the IPO and 50 that did not. The results showed that the publication of a sustainable report before an IPO has a positive effect on underpricing by reducing it. This finding suggests that companies that publish sustainability reports are perceived to be less risky, and investors value ESG disclosure as a tool to reduce the risks associated with ESG issues. The work contributes to the research on firms’ incentives to disclose ESG information. Our study is limited by the size of the sample, which is limited and only focused on European companies; therefore, future studies should consider companies from other parts of the world, and with more data related to IPO performance.
This paper examines whether CEO turnover affects company performance and the optimal time for CEO renewal during a turnaround process. Results, derived from data collected from Italian companies, highlight the necessity of introducing the new CEO before beginning an insolvency procedure. A later appointment can reduce his/her impact, probably due to the difficulty of managing negotiations with the creditors. Moreover, we show a positive and significant relationship between CEO turnover and the likelihood of a bankrupt firm re-emerging from an insolvency procedure. The analysis was based on the traditional logit model and more modern approaches like the random forest and the AdaBoost models, combined with the SHAP technique. Overall, our findings provide valuable insight for all company stakeholders, whose interests are significantly impacted by its default.
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