Agriculture expanded during the last 50 years from the Pampas to NW Argentina at the expense of natural forests and rangelands. In parallel, productivity was boosted through the increasing application of external inputs, modern technology and management practices. This study evaluated the impact of agricultural expansion between 1960 and 2005 by assessing the implications of land use, technology and management changes on (i) carbon (C), nitrogen (N) and phosphorous (P) stocks in soil and biomass, (ii) energy, C, N, P and water fluxes and (iii) water pollution, soil erosion, habitat intervention and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (impacts). Based on different data sources, these issues were assessed over $1.5 million km 2 (63% of Argentina), involving 399 political districts during three representative periods: 1956-1960, 1986-1990 and 2001-2005. The ecological and environmental performance of 1197 farming system types was evaluated through the AgroEcoIndex model, which quantified the stocks, fluxes and impacts mentioned above. Cultivation of natural ecosystems and farming intensification caused a noticeable increase of productivity, a strengthening of energy flux, an opening of matter cycles (C, N, P) and a negative impact on habitats and GHGs emission. However, due to the improved tillage practices and the application of less aggressive pesticides, erosion and pollution risk are today lower than those of the mid-20th century. The consistency of some assumptions and results were checked through uncertainty analysis. Comparing our results with international figures, some impacts (e.g. soil erosion, nutrient balance, energy use) were less significant than those recorded in intensive-farming countries like China, Japan, New Zealand, USA, or those of Western Europe, showing that farmers in Argentina developed the capacity to produce under relatively low-input/low-impact schemes during the last decades. [Correction added after online publication 4 October 2010: In the first sentence of the Abstract, NE was corrected to NW.]

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Abstract. Although floods in watersheds have been associated with land-use change since ancient times, the dynamics of flooding is still incompletely understood. In this paper we explored the relations between rainfall, groundwater level, and cultivation to explain the dynamics of floods in the extremely flat and valuable arable lands of the Quinto river watershed, in central Argentina. The analysis involved an area of 12.4 million hectare during a 26-y period (1978–2003), which comprised two extensive flooding episodes in 1983–1988 and 1996–2003. Supported by information from surveys as well as field and remote sensing measurements, we explored the correlation among precipitation, groundwater levels, flooded area and land use. Flood extension was associated to the dynamics of groundwater level, but these two variables displayed a poor association with rainfall, being particularly decoupled from it during the rainy periods. Correlations between groundwater level and flood extension were positive in all cases, but while highly significant relations (P<0.01) were found in highlands, non significant relations (P>0.05) predominate in lowlands. Our analysis supports the existence of a cyclic mechanism driven by the reciprocal influence between cultivation and groundwater levels in highlands. This cycle would involve the following stages: (a) cultivation boosts the elevation of groundwater levels through decreased evapotranspiration; (b) as groundwater level rises, floods spread causing a decline of land cultivation; (c) flooding propitiates higher evapotranspiration favouring its own retraction; (d) cultivation expands following the retreat of floods. Thus, cultivation would trigger a destabilizing feedback self affecting future cultivation in the highlands. It is unlikely that such sequence can work in lowlands. The results suggest that rather than responding directly and solely to the same mechanism, floods in lowlands may be the combined result of various factors like local rainfall, groundwater level fluctuations, surface and subsurface lateral flow, and water-body interlinking. Although the hypothetical mechanisms proposed here require additional understanding efforts, they suggest a promising avenue of environmental management in which cultivation could be steered in the region to smooth the undesirable impacts of floods.