Bu çalışmada Türkiye'nin Kuzeydoğu Anadolu Bölgesi'nde yer alan Erzurum istasyonunda kuraklık analizi yapılması amaçlanmıştır. Kuraklık analizi yöntemi olarak Standartlaştırılmış Yağış Evapotranspirasyon İndeksi (SYEİ) ve Bütünleşik Kuraklık İndeksi (BKİ) kullanılmıştır. 1975-2008 hidrolojik yılları arasında analiz gerçekleştirilmiştir. Veri olarak aylık toplam yağış, aylık ortalama sıcaklık, aylık ortalama nispi nem, aylık toplam buharlaşma ve aylık toplam güneşlenme süresi kullanılmıştır. Analizler neticesinde istasyon ve çevresinde hem sulaklığın hem de kuraklığın görüldüğü ortaya çıkmıştır. 1, 3, 6, 12 ve 24-Aylık periyotlarda kuraklık incelenmiştir. Her periyot için kuraklık frekansı değerleri bulunmuştur. SYEİ ve BKİ değerleri grafik haline getirilmiştir. Mann-Kendall ve Sen'in eğim metodu, trend analizi yöntemleri olarak tercih edilmiştir. SYEİ değerlerinde istatistiksel anlamda kuraklığın arttığına dair kanıt bulunamazken, BKİ değerlerinde %99 önemlilik seviyesinde kuraklıkta artış tespit edilmiştir.
The aim of this study is to predict the undrained shear strength (Cu) of the remolded soil samples and for this purpose, non-linear regression (NLR) analyses, fuzzy logic (FL) and artificial neural network (ANN) modelling were used to assess. Total 1306 undrained shear strength results of soil types of CH, CL, MH and ML from 230 different remolded soil test settings on 21 publications were collected while six different measurement devices were used by researchers. Although water content, plastic limit and liquid limit were used as input parameters for FL and ANN modelling, liquidity index or water content ratio were considered as input parameter for NLR analyses. In NLR analyses, 12 different regression equations were derived for prediction of Cu. Feed-Forward backpropagation and TANSIG transfer function were used for ANN modelling while Mamdani inference system was preferred with trapezoidal and triangular membership function for FL modelling. The experimental results of 914 tests for training of the ANN models, 196 for validation and 196 for testing were used. It was observed that the accuracy of the ANN and FL modellings were higher than NRL analyses. Furthermore, the simple and reliable regression equation was proposed for assessments of Cu values having higher coefficient of determination values (R2).
The fact that transportation infrastructure has a great impact on economic development reveals the necessity of more economical, comfortable and environmentally friendly transportation between transportation systems. With the rapid development of technology, the importance of the railway transportation system, which can carry high-capacity, economical and safe cargo, in the transportation sector is increasing. Although railway transportation has been used for many years in our country, it is not at the desired level in terms of both freight and passenger transportation. For a more balanced and systematic distribution of transportation infrastructure, transportation systems should be analyzed. In this study, information is given about the development of railway transport in Turkey, its ratio among other types in terms of freight and passenger transport, and its status in railway transport compared to European countries. In line with this information, the deficiencies of the railway and the investments that need to be made have been determined.
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