The present study aims to shed some light on the causal link between the Service Sector Index in the Turkish stock market and economic growth using a wavelet coherence approach. Thus, the present study determines whether the Service Sector Index leads to economic growth in Turkey and/or vice versa. Based on our aim, we use the wavelet coherence approach, which allows us to capture long-run and short-run causal linkages between the Service Sector Index and economic growth in Turkey, since the approach combines both time domain causality and frequency domain causality tests. The findings from wavelet coherence reveal that there is one-way causality running from the Service Sector Index to economic growth in Turkey at different frequencies and different periods between 1997 and 2017.
The study aims to capture the co-movement between non-performing loans (NPLs) and economic growth (EG) in Turkey using the quarterly data from 2005/Q1 to 2019/Q4 and applying the wavelet coherence approach, which allows the study to explore both the long-run and short-run causal linkages between NPLs and EG in Turkey. The findings reveal that (a) there is a significant vulnerability in NPLs and EG over the selected period at different frequency levels; (b) EG in Turkey has a strong power for explaining NPLs in the long-run; (c) EG causes NPLs in Turkey in the short-term between 2007 and 2010, which implies that the credit growth in the period with the increasing NPLs supports EG of Turkey. The outcomes of the tests underline the importance of EG for predicting NPLs in Turkey.
Öz: Dış ticaret hacmi farklı makroekonomik faktörlerden önemli ölçüde etkilenmektedir. Döviz kurunda meydana gelen değişim de diğer makro faktörler gibi dış ticaret kararları üzerinde önemli etkiye sahiptir. Bu çalışma ile döviz kuru oynaklığının dış ticaret üzerindeki etkisi teorik ve uygulamalı olarak incelenmiştir. Çalışmada Türkiye ekonomisi için Ocak 2005-Şubat 2014 dönemi için reel döviz kuru, ihracat, ithalat ve sanayi üretim endeksi aylık verileri kullanılmıştır. Çalışmada ARDL yönteminden yararlanılmış ve çalışma bulgularına göre; yabancı ülke gelirleri ihraca üzerinde kısa ve uzun dönemde olumlu etki yaparken, ihracat düzeyi ise reel döviz kuru ve döviz kuru oynaklığından uzun ve kısa dönemde olumsuz etkilenmektedir. Aynı zamanda ithalat; reel döviz kuru ve sanayi üretiminden kısa ve uzun dönemde olumlu etkilenirken; döviz kuru oynaklığından ise hem kısa hem de uzun dönemde olumsuz etkilenmektedir.
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