The aim of this paper is to explain empirically the determinants of credit default swap rates using a linear regression. We document that the majority of variables, detected from the credit risk pricing theories, explain more than 60% of the total level of credit default swap. These theoretical variables are credit rating, maturity, riskless interest rate, slope of the yield curve and volatility of equities. The estimated coefficients for the majority of these variables are consistent with theory and they are significant both statistically and economically. We conclude that credit rating is the most determinant of credit default swap rates.
This paper applies the mean-variance portfolio optimization (PO) approach and the stochastic dominance (SD) test to examine preferences for international diversification versus domestic diversification from American investors' viewpoints. Our PO results imply that the domestic diversification strategy dominates the international diversification strategy at a lower risk level and the reverse is true at a higher risk level. Our SD analysis shows that there is no arbitrage opportunity between international and domestic stock markets; domestically diversified portfolios with smaller risk dominate internationally diversified portfolios with larger risk and vice versa; and at the same risk level, there is no difference between the domestically and internationally diversified portfolios. Nonetheless, we cannot find any domestically diversified portfolios that stochastically dominate all internationally diversified portfolios, but we find some internationally diversified portfolios with small risk that dominate all the domestically diversified portfolios.
The volatility is a crucial variable in option pricing and hedging strategies. The aim of this paper is to provide some initial evidence of the empirical relevance of genetic programming to volatility's forecasting. By using real data from S&P500 index options, the genetic programming's ability to forecast Black and Scholes-implied volatility is compared between time series samples and moneyness-time to maturity classes. Total and out-of-sample mean squared errors are used as forecasting's performance measures. Comparisons reveal that the time series model seems to be more accurate in forecasting-implied volatility than moneyness time to maturity models. Overall, results are strongly encouraging and suggest that the genetic programming approach works well in solving financial problems.
This study employs the mean-variance (MV) criterion, Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) statistics and stochastic dominance (SD) analysis to investigate the performance of option strategies, including writing out-of-the-money (OTM) covered call and buying in-the-money (ITM) protective put, with that of the pure-stock investment by analysing the French data in the entire 1999 year. Our results from MV criterion show that none of these three strategies dominate one another but our CAPM statistics show that in general buying ITM protective-put strategy obtains the highest performance, followed by the writing OTM covered-call strategy while the naked stock obtains the smallest values. This confirms the superiority of ITM protective-put strategy, followed by OTM covered-call strategy by using the Beta coefficient, Sharpe ratio, Treynor and Jensen indices.As the return distributions of these strategies are non-normal, the MV criterion and the CAPM statistics may not be appropriate to assess the relative performance measurement of the portfolios. We further investigate the performance by employing SD approach. Our SD findings reveal that most of the buying covered-call and writing protective-put strategies are superior to their corresponding pure-stock strategy, as in general the former stochastically dominates the latter in the sense of first order SD. This infers that there may exist an anomaly of the existence of an arbitrage opportunity in option trading that all types of non-satiated investors will increase their wealth and utility by switching from the pure unhedged stock strategy to their corresponding buying protective-put or writing covered-call strategies. In addition, we find the dominance relationship between the two hedged positions is not as clear as the comparison with their unhedged positions, but on average more buying ITM protective put outperforms writing OTM covered call in the sense of the first-order SD. In short, our results confirm that option introduction improve significantly the performance of unhedged portfolios, especially buying ITM protective put.
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