Background: COVID-19 vaccines have been approved and made available. While questions of vaccine allocation strategies have received significant attention, important questions remain regarding the potential impact of the vaccine given uncertainties regarding efficacy against transmission, availability, timing, and durability. Methods: We adapted a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) model to examine the potential impact on hospitalization and mortality assuming increasing rates of vaccine efficacy, coverage, and administration. We also evaluated the uncertainty of the vaccine to prevent infectiousness as well as the impact on outcomes based on the timing of distribution and the potential effects of waning immunity. Findings: Increased vaccine efficacy against disease reduces hospitalizations and deaths from COVID-19; however, the relative benefit of transmission blocking varied depending on the timing of vaccine distribution. Early in an outbreak, a vaccine that reduces transmission will be relatively more effective than one introduced later in the outbreak. In addition, earlier and accelerated implementation of a less effective vaccine is more impactful than later implementation of a more effective vaccine. These findings are magnified when considering the durability of the vaccine. Vaccination in the spring will be less impactful when immunity is less durable. Interpretation: Policy choices regarding non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as social distancing and face mask use, will need to remain in place longer if the vaccine is less effective at reducing transmission or distributed slower. In addition, the stage of the local outbreak greatly impacts the overall effectiveness of the vaccine in a region and should be considered when allocating vaccines.
Mounting evidence suggests the primary mode of SARS-CoV-2 transmission is aerosolized transmission from close contact with infected individuals. While transmission is a direct result of human encounters, falling humidity may enhance aerosolized transmission risks similar to other respiratory viruses (e.g., influenza). Using Google COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports, we assessed the relative effects of absolute humidity and changes in individual movement patterns on daily cases while accounting for regional differences in climatological regimes. Our results indicate that increasing humidity was associated with declining cases in the spring and summer of 2020, while decreasing humidity and increase in residential mobility during winter months likely caused increases in COVID-19 cases. The effects of humidity were generally greater in regions with lower humidity levels. Given the possibility that COVID-19 will be endemic, understanding the behavioral and environmental drivers of COVID-19 seasonality in the United States will be paramount as policymakers, healthcare systems, and researchers forecast and plan accordingly.
Optimal design considering buckling of compressive members is an important subject in structural engineering. The strength of compressive members can be compensated by initial geometrical imperfection due to the manufacturing process; therefore, geometrical imperfection can affect the optimal design of structures. In this study, the metaheuristic teaching-learning-based-optimization (TLBO) algorithm is applied to study the geometrical imperfection-sensitivity of members' buckling in the optimal design of space trusses. Three benchmark trusses and a real-life bridge with continuous and discrete design variables are considered, and the results of optimization are compared for different degrees of imperfection, namely 0.001, 0.002, and 0.003. The design variables are the cross-sectional areas, and the objective is to minimize the total weight of the structures under the following constraints: tensile and compressive yielding stress, Euler buckling stress considering imperfection, nodal displacement, and available cross-sectional areas. The results reveal that higher geometrical imperfection degrees significantly change the critical buckling load of compressive members, and consequently, increase the weight of the optimal design. This increase varies from 0.4 to 119% for different degrees of imperfection in the studied trusses.
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