Large tectonic earthquakes lead to significant deformations in the months and years thereafter. These so-called post-seismic deformations include contributions mainly from afterslip and viscoelastic relaxation, quantification of their relative influence is of importance for understanding the evolution of post-seismic crustal stress, strain and aftershocks. Here, we investigate the post-seismic deformation processes following the 2011 M w 9.0 Tohoku earthquake using surface displacement data as observed by the onshore global positioning system network in the first ∼1.5 yr following the main shock. We explore two different inversion modelling strategies: (i) we simulate pure afterslip and (ii) we simulate the combined effect of afterslip and viscoelastic relaxation. By assuming that the afterslip is solely responsible for the observed post-seismic deformation, we find most afterslip activities to be located close to the downdip area of the coseismic rupture at 20-80 km depth with a maximum cumulative slip of ∼3.8 m and a seismic moment of 2.3 × 10 22 Nm, equivalent in moment to an M w 8.84 earthquake. By assuming a combination of afterslip and viscoelastic components, the best data fit is found for an afterslip portion that is spatially consistent with the pure afterslip model, but reveals a decreased seismic moment of 2.1 × 10 22 Nm, or M w 8.82. In addition, the combined model suggests an effective thickness of the elastic crust of ∼50 km overlying an asthenosphere with a Maxwell viscosity of 2 × 10 19 Pa s. Temporal analysis of our model inversions suggests that the rate of afterslip rapidly decreases with time, consistent with the state-and rate-strengthening frictional law. The spatial pattern of afterslip coincides with the locations of aftershocks, and also with the area of coseismically increased Coulomb failure stress (CFS). Only a small part of the coseismically increased CFS was released by the afterslip in 564 d after the event. The effect of the viscoelastic relaxation within this initial stage only plays a secondary role, but it shows an increasing tendency, that is, the contribution of viscoelastic relaxation increases with time. Further geodetic observations are needed for a robust quantification of the role of the viscoelastic relaxation in the post-seismic deformation.

Long-term and wide-area geodetic observations may allow identifying distinct postseismic deformation processes following large earthquakes, and thus can reveal fault behaviour and permit quantifying complexities in lithospheric rheology. In this paper, the first 7 years of GPS (Global Positioning System) displacement data following the 2008 Mw7.9 Wenchuan earthquake are used to study the relevant mechanisms of postseismic deformation. Two simple models that consider either afterslip or viscoelastic relaxation as the unitary mechanism of the postseismic deformation are tested at first. After analysing the limitations and complementarity of these two separated models, a combined model incorporating the two main mechanisms is presented. In contrast to previous studies, which mostly assume that afterslip and viscoelastic relaxation are independent, our combined model includes the secondary viscoelastic relaxation effect induced by transient Manuscript to be submitted to EPSL 2 afterslip. Modelling results suggest that the middle-to far-field postseismic deformation is mainly induced by viscoelastic relaxation of the coseismic stress change in the lower crust, whereas the near-field displacement is dominantly caused by stress-driven aseismic afterslip. The seismic moment released by the transient afterslip corresponds to an Mw7.4 earthquake, or 25% of that released by the Mw7.9 main shock. With a characteristic decay time of 1.2 years, most afterslip (~ 80%) is released in the first 2 years. Negligible aseismic afterslip is observed in the seismic gap between the Wenchuan and Lushan earthquakes, indicating the locked state of the fault within this segment. The effective lower crustal viscosity of the eastern Tibetan Plateau is estimated to be 2.0 × 10 18 Pa•s, at least two orders of magnitude smaller than that of the adjacent Sichuan Basin. This finding is consistent with previous observations of low seismic velocity and high electrical conductivity in this region, all of which support the assumption that the crustal thickening in the eastern Tibetan Plateau is dominantly caused by ductile lower crustal flow, with important implications for understanding both long-and short-term crustal deformation processes.

The slip rate and its spatial variations of the Kunlun fault (KLF) play important roles in the tectonic evolution of the northeastern Tibetan Plateau. Here the slip rate of the Tuosuo Lake (TL) segment of the KLF, which remains controversial from various geological observations, is investigated with a dense Global Positioning System observation profile. With a viscoelastic earthquake‐cycle deformation model, the slip rate of the TL segment is estimated to be 5.5 ± 0.7 mm/a, in comparison with an overestimated value of 9.2 ± 1.1 mm/a from an elastic model. Combined with previous results, we infer that the slip rate of the KLF likely decreases gradually from the TL segment toward the eastern tip, rather than remaining uniform along the fault or decreasing rapidly within the easternmost 150 km. The estimated lower crust viscosity (~1018 Pa · s) agrees with values inferred from postseismic studies, which suggests a weak ductile lower crust in this region.

On May 12, 2008, a magnitude 7.9 earthquake ruptured the Longmenshan fault system in Sichuan Province, China, collapsing buildings and killing tens of thousands people. As predicted, aftershocks may last for at least one year, and moreover, large aftershocks are likely to occur. Therefore, it is critical to outline the areas with potential aftershocks before reconstruction and re-settling people as to avoid future disasters. It is demonstrated that the redistribution of stress induced by an earthquake should trigger successive seismic activity. Based on static stress triggering theory, we calculated the coseismic stress changes on major faults induced by the Wenchuan earthquake, with elastic dislocation theory and the multilayered crustal model. We also discuss the stress distribution and its significance for future seismic activity under the impact of the Wenchuan earthquake. It is shown that coulomb failure stress (CFS) increases obviously on the Daofu-Kangding segment of the Xianshuihe Fault, the Maqu and Nanping segment of the Eastern Kunlun Fault, the Qingchuan Fault, southern segment of the Minjiang Fault, Pengxian-Guanxian Fault, Jiangyou-Guangyuan Fault, and Jiangyou-Guanxian Fault. The increased stress raises the probability of earthquake occurrence on these faults. Since these areas are highly populated, earthquake monitoring and early disaster alarm system are needed. CFS increases with a magnitude of 0.03-0.06 MPa on the Qingchuan Fault, which is close to the northern end of the rapture of Wenchuan earthquake. The occurrence of some strong aftershocks, including three events with magnitude higher than 5.0, indicates that the seismic activities have been triggered by the main shock. Aftershocks seem to migrate northwards. Since the CFS change on the Lueyang-Mianxian Fault located on the NEE of the Qingchuan Fault is rather small (±0.01 MPa), the migration of aftershocks might be terminated in the area near Hanzhong City. The CFS change on the western Qinling Fault is around 10 Pa, and the impact of static triggering can be neglected. The increment of CFS on the Pengxian-Guanxian Fault and Beichuan-Yingxiu Fault southwest to the main rupture is 0.005-0.015 MPa, which would facilitate earthquake triggering in these areas. Very few aftershocks in these areas indicate that the accumulated stress has not been released sufficiently. High seismic risk is predicated in these areas due to co-seismic CFS loading. The Wenchuan earthquake released the accumulated CFS on the Fubianhe Fault, the Huya Fault, the Ha'nan-Qingshanwan Fault, and the Diebu-Bailongjiang Fault. The decrement of CFS changes on the Longquanshan Fault east to Chengdu City is about 0.002 MPa. The seismic activity will be depressed by decrement of CFS on these faults.Wenchuan earthquake, Longmenshan fault system, Coulomb failure stress, earthquake triggering

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A sequence of large earthquakes occurred along the North Anatolian fault in the 20th century. These earthquakes, including the 1999İzmit/Düzce earthquakes, generally propagated westward towards the Marmara Sea, defining the Main Marmara fault as a potential seismic gap. It is important to conduct a detailed assessment of the seismic hazards along the main Marmara fault because the megacity Istanbul lies only approximately 10 km north of the eastern segment of the Main Marmara fault, which is referred to as the Princes' Islands Fault segment (PIF). Here, we study the locking status of this fault segment to evaluate the seismic hazard potential. For the first time, combined ascending and descending Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar and Global Positioning System observations were used to investigate the crustal deformation associated with the PIF. After careful corrections of the estimated ground velocity, a deformation pattern relating to fault locking near the Princes' Islands was identified. The modeling results revealed that the slip rate and locking depth of the fault segment show a clear trade-off, which were estimated as 18.9 ± 7.2 mm yr −1 and 12.1 ± 7.0 km, respectively. With a moment accumulation rate of 1.7 ± 0.4 × 10 17 Nm yr −1 (proportional to the product of slip rate and locking depth), our results imply a build-up of a geodetic moment on the PIF and therefore a potential for earthquake hazards in the vicinity of the Istanbul megacity.