In a previous paper Sharkey et al. [14] proved the exactness of closures at the level of triples for Markovian SIR (susceptible-infected-removed) dynamics on tree-like networks. This resulted in a deterministic representation of the epidemic dynamics on the network that can be numerically evaluated. In this paper, we extend this modelling framework to certain classes of networks exhibiting loops. We show that closures where the loops are kept intact are exact, and lead to a simplified and numerically solvable system of ODEs (ordinary-differential-equations). The findings of the paper lead us to a generalisation of closures that are based on partitioning the network around nodes that are cut-vertices (i.e. the removal of such a node leads to the network breaking down into at least two disjointed components or subnetworks). Exploiting this structural property of the network yields some natural closures, where the evolution of a particular state can typically be exactly given in terms of the corresponding or projected states on the subnetworks and the cut-vertex. A byproduct of this analysis is an alternative probabilistic proof of the exactness of the closures for tree-like networks presented in Sharkey et al. [14]. In this paper we also elaborate on how the main result can be applied to more realistic networks, for which we write down the ODEs explicitly and compare output from these to results from simulation. Furthermore, we give a general, recipe-like method of how to apply the reduction by closures technique for arbitrary networks, and give an upper bound on the maximum number of equations needed for an exact representation.
Globally coupled doubling maps are studied in this paper. In this setting and for finitely many sites, two distinct bifurcation values of the coupling strength have been identified in the literature, corresponding to the emergence of contracting directions ([24]) and, specifically for N = 3 sites, to the loss of ergodicity ([10]). On the one hand, we reconsider these results and provide an interpretation of the observed dynamical phenomena in terms of the synchronization of the sites. On the other hand, we initiate a new point of view which focuses on the evolution of distributions and allows to incorporate the investigation of a continuum of sites. In particular, we observe phenomena that is analogous to the limit states of the contracting regime of N = 3 sites.
In this paper we make the first steps to bridge the gap between classic control theory and modern, network-based epidemic models. In particular, we apply nonlinear model predictive control (NMPC) to a pairwise ODE model which we use to model a susceptible-infectious-susceptible (SIS) epidemic on non-trivial contact structures. While classic control of epidemics concentrates on aspects such as vaccination, quarantine and fast diagnosis, our novel setup allows us to deliver control by altering the contact network within the population. Moreover, the ideal outcome of control is to eradicate the disease while keeping the network well connected. The paper gives a thorough and detailed numerical investigation of the impact and interaction of system and control parameters on the controllability of the system. The analysis reveals, that for certain set parameters it is possible to identify critical control bounds above which the system is controllable. We foresee, that our approach can be extended to even more realistic or simulation-based models with the aim to apply these to real-world situations.
A system of four globally coupled doubling maps is studied in this paper. It is known that such systems have a unique absolutely continuous invariant measure (acim) for weak interaction, but the case of stronger coupling is still unexplored. As in the case of three coupled sites [14], we prove the existence of a critical value of the coupling parameter at which multiple acims appear. Our proof has several new ingredients in comparison to the one presented in [14]. We strongly exploit the symmetries of the dynamics in the course of the argument. This simplifies the computations considerably, and gives us a precise description of the geometry and symmetry properties of the arising asymmetric invariant sets. Some new phenomena are observed which are not present in the case of three sites. In particular, the asymmetric invariant sets arise in areas of the phase space which are transient for weaker coupling and a nontrivial symmetric invariant set emerges, shaped by an underlying centrally symmetric Lorenz map. We state some conjectures on further invariant sets, indicating that unlike the case of three sites, ergodicity breaks down in many steps, and not all of them are accompanied by symmetry breaking.
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