In order to assess the water resources carrying capacity (WRCC) of Hubei province, an improved catastrophe progression method based on M-K test and correlation analysis was established. This model includes evaluation, abrupt change test and correlation analysis. It can make a comprehensive assessment of water resource carrying capacity in a certain area. The evaluation results of this model are clear and can effectively avoid the effects of subjective weight and, in addition, it can also streamline the index system. We applied the model to study the WRCC of Hubei province from 2005 to 2016, considering the supply and demand of water resources, ecological environment, economy and society. The results showed that the WRCC of Hubei province is at the ‘weak’ level, presenting a certain development and utilization potential, but it must be strictly controlled and moderately developed. The WRCC of Hubei province is improving, but must be adjusted by water conservation facilities and long-term management policies to prevent the foreseeable deterioration. Water supply and demand systems and ecological environment systems were found to be the driving factors of WRCC through correlation analysis. This approach gives the decision-makers suggestions about water resource sustainable utilization.
Due to the importance and complexity of water resources regulations in the pond irrigation systems of the Jiang-Huai hilly regions, a water allocation simulation model for pond irrigation districts based on system simulation theory was developed in this study. To maximize agricultural irrigation benefits while guaranteeing rural domestic water demand, an optimal water resources regulation model for pond irrigation districts and a simulation-based optimal water resources regulation technology system for the pond irrigation system were developed. Using this system, it was determined that the suitable pond coverage rate (pond capacity per unit area) was 2.92 × 105 m3/km2. Suitable water supply and operational rules for adjusting crop planting structure were also developed the water-saving irrigation method and irrigation system. To guarantee rural domestic water demand, the multi-year average total irrigation water deficit of the study area decreased by 4.66 × 104 m3/km2; the average multi-year water deficit ratio decreased from 20.40% to 1.18%; the average multi-year irrigation benefit increased by 1.11 × 105 RMB (16,128$)/km2; and the average multi-year revenue increased by 6.69%. Both the economic and social benefits were significant. The results of this study provide a theoretical basis and technological support for comprehensive pone governance in the Jiang-Huai hilly regions and promote the establishment of a water allocation scheme and irrigation system for pond irrigation districts, which have practical significance and important application value.
The human settlement environment is a dynamic subsystem in which people live, produce and live in the social system, and is constantly evolving. Aiming at how to comprehensively evaluate the suitability state of a given human settlement environment in a certain time and space and the evolutionary trend of this state, the set pair analysis theory and its partial connection numbers are introduced into the suitability evaluation of human settlements, and the set of human settlements is established. Analyze and evaluate the model and apply it to the suitability status and development trend of human settlements in Jiangxi Province from 2013 to 2016. The results show that the suitability of the province from 2013 to 2016 is between excellent and good, and it is going every year. The direction of more livable development, the intensity of development trend is between 0.5 and 0.53, suggesting that the relevant government decision-making departments need to continuously increase the investment in the livability of the province's human settlements, and ensure that the environmental livability is not weakened.
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