Oil price prediction is one of the vital processes in every oil producing and operating company for current running projects and future new explorations, the whole different segments of industries and commodities would be also interested in knowing the future of oil prices, and we shall not ignore the interest that each country by itself shows to know the effect of future prices on their development plans. The oil price today is somehow far away from the control of any of the world powers, not under the control of the major consumers like the United States, Europe, Japan, Russia & China, nor the Super Majors like BP, Total, Exxon, Shell and Chevron, and not even OPEC majors like Saudi, Iraq, Iran, Kuwait and UAE for several reasons. The Consumers are not any more controlling the tap of oil as it was before the 1960's. While the Super majors are not any more having the major reserves as it was before the 1970's, while for OPEC the Excess Capacity of oil production that they have during 1970's, 80's, and 90's has diminished with maturing fields and failing to find new reserves. Therefore, the oil price control become mainly in the hand of supply and demand trends, hence the ability to capture the supply and demand trend model and anticipate the future of them, the oil price shall be known with reasonable confidence. Therefore, several attempts have been conducted throughout the years to estimate the oil prices as early as 1960's. In this paper, a new oil price projection modeling is built and called POMVSD (Price of Oil Modeling with Variables of Supply and Demand). A model reflects the new economic changes happening worldwide. The details of this model will be described in this paper in addition to a review and analysis of historical and modern literature that support this new model structure.
This paper describes the development and implementation of a unique new capability to automatically measure the performance of drilling crews and Invisible Lost Time; the supporting technology service makes it possible to carry out detailed comparisons of the performance of crews across a large number of installations. This technology service uses rig sensor data to automatically generate an objective description of the drilling process using the patented “Automated Operations Recognition System” without the need of additional personnel or equipment on the rig site. This simply will help improving rig performance of drilling and tripping operations and allow benchmarking and comparison between different rigs and different crews etc. The service is used to; Analyze the drilling process at a high level of quality and detail which complements traditional morning reporting. The patented “Automatized Operations Recognition System” has the potential to significantly reduce total well time by setting standardized and objective benchmarks in order to identify non-productive or “Invisible Lost Time”, otherwise known as “ILT” and to maintain an increase in performance.Uses a well-defined set of Key Performance Indicators (KPI) to measure drilling performance accurately in order to make Invisible Lost Time visible.Compare actual performance with predefined practices, and then maintain performance-optimized procedures once they are in place.Optimize an organization’s performance through benchmarking and trend analysis using Automated Drilling Performance Measurement system. Among many of the examples presented in the paper will be one on the variation in the tripping slip to slip connection time and drilling weight to weight time of 4 wells on 3 rigs. In addition, the variation among different drilling crews on each rig which showed huge differences when comparing similar operations. The paper will also present the potential savings after implementing this initiative.
Geoscientists routinely produce reports addressing the impact of proposed, platforms, rigs & barges in general on historical & prehistoric archaeological sites. These reports identify any conditions at the seabed or in the foundation zone where hazardous subsurface features or unstable soil conditions exist & provide guidelines regarding platform & drill site placements. The principal aim is to reveal the general near-surface geological structure & indicate reflectors which may represent a change in soil characteristics &/or stratigraphy. This requires the correlation of seismic data with soil borings in the vicinity. Accurate site surveying is crucial for proper rig positioning & to avoid Non-Productive Time. Mishaps with inaccurate rig positioning can cause disastrous consequences on the platform & impact the costs, more importantly, the lives of many. This paper attempts to have a more sophisticated analysis on the rig move & rig positioning to ensure a 100% safe spud-in operation at all times. It uses qualitative risk based analysis on all the factors involved in the rig positioning which is a new creative approach that has never been done or thought of before. During planning the positioning of an offshore rig on a high risk, high reward Gas tower many concerns were addressed. Some of the challenges were namely: a remote location but with close proximity to a residential island, movement history records are incomplete & future unconventional requirements need to be done. Furthermore, the particular area of this field is notorious for having numerous pin holes & punch-through woes due to historical barge/rig movements & due the soil being very muddy. Filling it up with sand bags is simply not a viable solution. To safely administer the rig positioning, several steps were taken to ensure a thorough and flawless approach: Reviewing the various methods used for positioning a Platform &/or Rig on a new well location, making it ready for operation & performing accurate spud-in with Zero risk. Conducting feasibility studies, including optional checks for punch-through resistance and fatigue; such studies have resulted in a "Statement of Compliance Assessment" for specific locations & led to the idea of issuing preliminary "Certificate of Approval" Researching historical vessel movements that may have foundered in the area of interest conducted Scrutinizing advanced methods of rig surveying/positioning that allowed ADMA to develop a customized strategy & implement procedures to prepare these moves & guarantee Operation Safely & Quality delivery. This ultimately saved a huge amount of rig time & ample amounts of money. Writing up guidelines for sea-bed & sub sea-bed requirements to assess the suitability for locations. Reconnaissance of soil conditions is required in order to begin to establish design criteria for the following types of mobile rig and drilling operations: ✓ Jack-up rigs ✓ Anchoring of jack-ups for stand-off locations ✓ Conductor / casing setting for any rig type ✓ Initial spudding of drilling equipment, including guide-base stability, from any rig type ✓ Top-hole drilling The normal & standard alignment of rig-tower orientation was not accepted by the contractor or the Insurance Company. It was maintained that with the current existing challenges, it is not possible to position the rig center to centre. A detailed risk assessment, scaled orientation diagrams, diver's surveys, rig suitability assessment for positioning including water depth, spud-can capacity, leg penetration/punch-through analysis, cantilever's relative positioning & reach have been done & examined. Conflicting records of diver's surveys with varying pin-hole numbers & relative orientations have prompted narrowing down the uncertainty and minimizing the magnitude of errors. Side Scan surveys, bathymetry surveys & sub bottom profiler have been acquired which greatly assisted in providing logical rationale behind the contradicting diver's survey reports. The safe & correct alignment between the rig & the tower had to be done at a relative 45deg angle to ensure all pinholes are avoided & the spud-in is done flawlessly & efficiently.
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