This paper investigates the problem of flood-induced scour on masonry arch bridges through the analysis of a real case study, Rubbianello Bridge. This is a multi-span masonry arch bridge located in Central Italy, which suffered the collapse of two of the seven spans due to foundation scour during a severe flood in December 2013. The study has a twofold aim: to evaluate with a numerical model the level of scour which led to the bridge failure in 2013 and the corresponding collapse mechanism, and to assess the sensitivity of the bridge's modal properties (vibration frequencies and mode shapes) to different levels of scour. An accurate nonlinear three-dimensional model of the bridge is developed, whose elastic properties are calibrated to match the results of dynamic identification tests performed via Operational Modal Analysis (OMA) on the remaining portion of the bridge. A numerical simulation of the effects of the scour hole progression is also performed on the full bridge, according to recently proposed techniques. The study results provide useful insights on both the cause of collapse of the bridge and the suitability of OMA for bridge scour monitoring.

This version is available at https://strathprints.strath.ac.uk/62843/ Strathprints is designed to allow users to access the research output of the University of Strathclyde. Unless otherwise explicitly stated on the manuscript, Copyright © and Moral Rights for the papers on this site are retained by the individual authors and/or other copyright owners. Please check the manuscript for details of any other licences that may have been applied. You may not engage in further distribution of the material for any profitmaking activities or any commercial gain. You may freely distribute both the url (https://strathprints.strath.ac.uk/) and the content of this paper for research or private study, educational, or not-for-profit purposes without prior permission or charge.Any correspondence concerning this service should be sent to the Strathprints administrator: strathprints@strath.ac.ukThe Strathprints institutional repository (https://strathprints.strath.ac.uk) is a digital archive of University of Strathclyde research outputs. It has been developed to disseminate open access research outputs, expose data about those outputs, and enable the management and persistent access to Strathclyde's intellectual output. Abstract Viscous dampers are dissipation devices widely employed for seismic structural control. To date, the performance of systems equipped with viscous dampers has been extensively analysed only by employing deterministic approaches. However, these approaches neglect the response dispersion due to the uncertainties in the input as well as the variability of the system properties. Some recent works have highlighted the important role of these seismic input uncertainties in the seismic performance of linear and nonlinear viscous dampers. This study analyses the effect of the variability of damper properties on the probabilistic system response and risk. In particular, the paper aims at evaluating the impact of the tolerance allowed in devices' quality control and production tests in terms of variation of the exceedance probabilities of the Engineering Demand Parameters (EDPs) which are most relevant for the seismic performance. A preliminary study is carried out to relate the variability of the constitutive damper characteristics to the tolerance limit allowed in tests and to evaluate the consequences on the device's dissipation properties. In the subsequent part of the study, the sensitivity of the dynamic response is analysed by harmonic analysis. Finally, the seismic response sensitivity is studied by evaluating the influence of the allowed variability of the constitutive damper characteristics on the response hazard curves, providing the exceedance probability per year of EDPs. A set of linear elastic systems with different dynamic properties, equipped with linear and nonlinear dampers, are considered in the analyses, and Subset Simulation (SS) is employed together with the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method to achieve a confident estimate of small exceedance probabilities.

Damping and isolation devices are often employed to control and enhance the seismic performance of structural systems. However, the effectiveness of these devices in mitigating the seismic risk may be significantly affected by manufacturing tolerances, and systems equipped with devices whose properties deviate from the nominal ones may exhibit a performance very different than expected. The paper analyzes this problem by proposing a general framework for investigating the sensitivity of the seismic risk of structural systems with respect to system properties varying in a prescribed range. The proposed framework is based on the solution of a reliability-based optimization (RBO) problem, aimed to search for the worst combination of the uncertain anti-seismic device parameters, within the allowed range of variation, that maximizes the seismic demand hazard. A hybrid probabilistic approach is employed to speed up the reliability analyses required for evaluating the objective function at each iteration of the RBO process. This approach combines a conditional method for estimating the seismic demand at a given intensity level, with a simulation approach for representing the seismic hazard. The proposed method is applied to evaluate the influence of the variability of the properties of linear and nonlinear fluid viscous dampers on the seismic risk of a low-rise steel building. The study results show that the various response parameters considered are differently affected by the damper property and unveil the capability of the proposed approach to evaluate the potentially worst conditions that jeopardize the system reliability.

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Current practical approaches for probabilistic seismic performance assessment of structures rely on the concept of intensity measure (IM), which is used to decompose the problem into hazard analysis and conditional seismic demand analysis. These approaches are potentially more efficient than traditional Monte-Carlo based ones, but the performance estimates can be negatively influenced by inadequate setup choices. These include, among the others, the number of seismic intensity levels to consider, the number of structural analyses to be performed at each intensity level, and the lognormality assumption for the conditional demand. This paper investigates the accuracy and effectiveness of a widespread IM-based method for seismic performance assessment, multi-stripe analysis (MSA), through an extensive parametric study carried out on a three-story steel moment-resisting frame, by considering different setup choices and various engineering demand parameters. A stochastic ground motion model is employed to describe the seismic hazard and the spectral acceleration is used as intensity measure. The results of the convolution between the seismic hazard and the conditional probability of exceedance obtained via MSA are compared with the estimates obtained via Subset Simulation, providing a reference solution. The comparison gives useful insights on the influence of the main parameters controlling the accuracy and precision of the IM-based method. It is shown that with the proper settings, MSA can provide risk estimates as accurate as those obtained via Subset Simulation, at a fraction of the computational cost.