Impact du changement climatique sur l'agriculture : une quantification du biais de prix dans les approches économétriquesFabrice OCHOU, Philippe QUIRION Beaucoup d'études économétriques évaluent l'impact du changement climatique sur l'agriculture en supposant les prix agricoles exogènes. Si les variables climatiques influencent ces prix, il en résulte un « biais de prix », dont l'existence est reconnue mais qui n'a jamais été quantifié. Nous quantifions ce biais dans le cas du Burkina Faso, avec un panel de 45 provinces et 14 années, pour les trois céréales les plus cultivées : maïs, mil et sorgho.Le rendement en grain est sensible aux chocs météorologiques. Si ces chocs diminuent le rendement en grain de 10%, le prix des céréales augmente de 2 à 3%. Le biais de prix est important, puisque la perte de bien-être est 20% à 70% plus élevée que celle calculée en supposant les prix exogènes. L'ampleur du biais dépend de celle du choc météorologique, du modèle économétrique utilisé et des hypothèses retenues sur les coûts de production.Many econometric studies assess the impact of climate change on agriculture by assuming exogenous agricultural prices. If climate variables influence these prices, the result is a 'price bias', the existence of which is recognised but has never been quantified. We quantify this bias in the case of Burkina Faso, with a panel of 45 provinces and 14 years for the three most widely grown cereals: maize, millet and sorghum.Grain yields are sensitive to weather shocks. If these shocks reduce grain yield by 10%, the price of grain increases by 2-3%. The price bias is significant, since the welfare loss is 20% to 70% higher than that calculated by assuming exogenous prices. The magnitude of the bias depends on the magnitude of the weather shock, the econometric model used and the assumptions made about production costs.2 Mots Clés : Biais de Prix, Changements climatiques, Agriculture.
This study describes the different types of commitments made by Africans in their National Determined Contributions (NDCs) and tries to explain whether or not it will be possible for them to fulfill their commitments. For this purpose, we operate all African NDCs formally presented at COP 21 in Paris in 2015 in which the greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction commitments are presented. The analysis reveals three types of commitments—namely, conditional commitments, not conditional on international aid, and both at the same time. Countries with conditional commitments subject to external financing are likely to fulfill their commitments that are stronger. Only countries with unconditioned commitments are more realistic not relying on external assistance that is becoming more and more hypothetical. Beyond the types of commitments, other types of obstacles such as the blurred legal form of the Paris Agreement and the preference for Adaptation could make it difficult to fulfill the commitments of African countries.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.
hi@scite.ai
10624 S. Eastern Ave., Ste. A-614
Henderson, NV 89052, USA
Copyright © 2024 scite LLC. All rights reserved.
Made with 💙 for researchers
Part of the Research Solutions Family.