We derive a sphere-packing error exponent for coded transmission over discrete memoryless channels with a fixed decoding metric. By studying the error probability of the code over an auxiliary channel, we find a lower bound to the probability of error of mismatched decoding. The bound is shown to decay exponentially for coding rates smaller than a new upper bound to the mismatch capacity. For rates higher than the new upper bound, the error probability is shown to be bounded away from zero. The new upper bound is shown to improve over previous upper bounds to the mismatch capacity.
Two alternative exact characterizations of the minimum error probability of Bayesian M -ary hypothesis testing are derived. The first expression corresponds to the error probability of an induced binary hypothesis test and implies the tightness of the meta-converse bound by Polyanskiy, Poor and Verdú; the second expression is function of an information-spectrum measure and implies the tightness of a generalized Verdú-Han lower bound. The formulas characterize the minimum error probability of several problems in information theory and help to identify the steps where existing converse bounds are loose.
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